Inside the rapid decline of Trump's wing of the GOP: analysis

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U.S. President Donald Trump attends the State Department Kennedy Center Honors Medal Presentation Dinner at the State Department in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 6, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Ordinarily, an election in an area as conservative as Tennessee's 7th Congressional District isn't a major story. That district, which Donald Trump carried by 22 percent in 2024, typically goes hard-right — and a GOP victory comes as no surprise.

But on Tuesday, December 2 in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, political strategists paid very close attention to a special election that found Democrat Aftyn Behn competing with Republican Matt Van Epps — who won, but by much smaller margins than Trump. The election became largely a referendum on Trump's second presidency, and according to conservative New York Times columnist David French, the election results are a very bad sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.

"The Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps, defeated his Democratic opponent, Aftyn Behn, by just under nine points," French explains. "In some places, a nine-point Republican margin is considered a resounding victory. But not in Tennessee 7. In 2024, the district voted for Donald Trump by a 22-point margin. At the same time, Mark Green, the Republican Van Epps succeeded last week, won reelection by 21 points. This is not a swing district or one that Democrats expect to win this side of the apocalypse."

The Never Trump conservative, a frequent guest on MS NOW, emphasizes that Behn didn't run as a centrist but rather, as a staunch progressive — and has been compared to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York). Yet she only lost by single digits in a deep-red district.

"That it was close at all was stunning, not least because Behn is hardly an ideological match for one of the most conservative districts in Tennessee," French argues. "She's been labeled — and not as a gesture of love and respect — the 'AOC of Tennessee.' She once posted, then deleted, during the George Floyd protests in 2020, 'Good morning, especially to the 54 percent of Americans that believe burning down a police station is justified.' Since the 7th District includes parts of Nashville, it was also unhelpful that Behn said on a podcast, also in 2020: “I hate the city…. I hate country music."

The "MAGA faction," French laments, does the GOP a major disservice when it bashes "traditional conservatives."

"If you've been doing nothing but shedding support since Trump was sworn in," French argues, "and if the Democrats work to win over decent Republicans who are repulsed by what their party has become, then the gerrymandering party may be reminded of one of Solomon's most memorable proverbs: 'Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.'"

David French's full New York Times column is available at this link (subscription required).

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