Red state shows signs of fracture as Republican anxiety mounts

Since the 1990s, Texas has been a Republican stronghold. The late Democratic governor, Ann Richards, was voted out of office in 1994, when she lost to Republican George W. Bush (who went on to be elected president in 2000). And Democrats have been struggling in statewide races in Texas ever since.

Yet in 2018, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) narrowly lost to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). And the fact that a Democrat came within striking distance in a U.S. Senate race sent shockwaves through Texas politics.

Now, according to Politico, another U.S. Senate race is worrying GOP strategists in the Lone Star State.

Two well-known conservatives — veteran Washington Post columnist George Will and former Deputy White House Press Secretary Sarah Matthews, who served in the first Trump Administration — believe that Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race could be in play for Democrats if State Attorney General Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee instead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. However, Will and Matthews also stress that Cornyn, if he wins the primary, would be very hard to beat in the general election.

In an article published on February 26, Politico journalists Liz Crampton, Jordain Carney, Samuel Benson, Alex Gangitano and Adam Wren report that "Republicans in Washington" are "growing more alarmed that their increasingly vicious intraparty contest could cost them a must-win Senate seat."

According to the reporters, "Sen. John Cornyn appears to be headed to an expensive and nasty 10-week runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a strong chance that Paxton wins the nomination even after national Republicans spent months airing his dirty laundry all over the Texas airwaves in an effort to boost Cornyn….If Cornyn loses the primary, Senate Republicans worry they could be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars that could otherwise go toward key battleground races in expensive states like North Carolina, Georgia or Michigan, complicating their path toward holding Senate control."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) is among the Republicans who is sounding the alarm about Texas.

Thune told Politico, "Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the seat (flips), depending on who the Democrats nominate….We have to be prepared to spend there, and that's a very different scenario if Cornyn's the nominee. He is by far, I think, the best candidate on the ballot in a general election — not only for the Senate, but also, for down-ballot races in the House that could be impacted by the Senate race too."

A GOP operative, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Politico, "All signs indicate that Paxton probably finishes first. We're just hoping the gap is close enough (that) the narrative isn't 'Paxton kicked the crap out of Cornyn.'"

Cornyn told Politico, "Unfortunately, the attorney general has got so much baggage and corruption in his wake that he will jeopardize our chances of keeping this seat red in November. I believe that I can help President Trump in (the) end of his second term by not only winning this race, but bringing along some of these congressmen who are running in these five new congressional seats. Ken Paxton jeopardizes all of that."

Lone Star politics were recently rocked by a bombshell when, in a deep red district in the Fort Worth suburbs, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election for a Texas State Senate seat by 14 percent. Donald Trump carried that district in 2024 by 17 percent in 2024.

In Texas, Democrats perform well in major urban centers like Houston, Austin and El Paso but struggle in statewide races. The last time a Democrat won a gubernatorial race in Texas was Richards' victory in 1990, and the state's last Democratic U.S. senator, Bob Krueger, left office in 1993 after losing a special election to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Moreover, Texas hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976.