'Train wreck': Texas Republicans fear the worst as 'ugly' Senate primary heats up

15 May 2025

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) at the 2014 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland (Christopher Halloran/Shutterstock.com)

In 2020, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) was reelected to a fourth term when he defeated Democrat M.J. Hegar by roughly 9.6 percent. Although Texas remains a red state, Democrats have been making progress there — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) narrowly defeated his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, in 2018. But Cornyn's reelection in 2020 was decisive.

Cornyn is up for reelection in 2026, and he is seeking a fifth term. But Cornyn's campaign is complicated by an aggressive GOP primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — a far-right MAGA conspiracy theorist who is controversial and divisive even on the right.

Politico's Ben Jacobs, in an article published on May 14, emphasizes that Texas' 2026 GOP U.S. primary is already nasty but is likely to get even nastier in the months ahead.

"Ten months out," Jacobs reports, "the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle — a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November…. For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it's an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office. He's maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He'd be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn's become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican."

Jacobs adds, "Much of his problem is stylistic — Cornyn looks, talks and acts like a traditional politician; he's one of the few senators for whom it takes little imagination to envision serving in a different era. But his brand of Republicanism is also viewed by many in the party as insufficiently MAGA."

Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas) warns that for Lone Star Republicans, no good can come from an "ugly" primary battle between Cornyn and Paxton.

McCaul told Politico, "I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party. It'll be an ugly one."

Former National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) staffer Jesse Hunt believes that the primary battle between Cornyn and Paxton could affect Republicans outside of Texas.

Hunt told Politico, "Texas is a very expensive state to run a campaign in, and resources are not unlimited. A lot of the people who may be asked to get involved in that sort of intra-party feud in a state like Texas, could also be asked to help fund efforts to flip Georgia and flip other Democrat held states."

Read the full Politico article at this link.

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