Anti-Trump conservatives lay out 'palpable' weaknesses GOP frontrunner faces in general election

25 January 2024

Many Never Trump conservatives were hoping — not expecting, but hoping — that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would pull off a major upset in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary, but that didn't happen. Trump defeated Haley by about 11 percent, moving him another step closer to winning the GOP nomination and having a rematch with Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden in the general election.

The New Hampshire primary confirmed that Trump is still quite popular with his hardcore MAGA base. But according to Politico, the good news for Never Trumpers is that the New Hampshire data also underscores his weaknesses in the general election.

Although MAGA voters showed up to support Trump in New Hampshire, Trump still has major problems with moderates, independents and anti-Trump conservatives, according to some prominent Never Trumpers.

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"Even after Trump went two-for-two in the early nominating contests," Politico's Lisa Kashinsky explains in an article published on January 25, "the non-Trump movement sees increasingly positive signs that the former president can be beat in November. Polls and exit surveys from Iowa and New Hampshire show swaths of the Republican electorate cast ballots specifically against Trump — and would refuse to vote for him in November."

Kashinsky continues, "Independents who helped hand Trump a general election loss in 2020 helped fuel record turnout in New Hampshire's GOP primary. And Trump didn't make major strides in either state in the highly educated areas where he was weakest in 2016…. In New Hampshire, 64 percent of undeclared voters sided with Haley, according to exit polls."

The Lincoln Project's Mike Madrid, a Never Trumper and Republican strategist, believes that the New Hampshire results show that Trump has problems with a variety of non-MAGA voters.

Madrid told Politico, "It was definitely not a good night for Donald Trump. By most metrics, the path to (stopping Trump) has become much clearer. The anti-Trump lane is discernible. It's palpable. It's big. It's something that we can work with in a real, meaningful way."

The Never Trumpers interviewed by Politico aren't predicting that Haley will overtake Trump in the GOP primary; rather, their point is that Trump is going into the general election with opposition that isn't limited to Democratic voters.

The Bulwark's Charlie Sykes, a Never Trump conservative who is rooting for Biden, told Politico, "It's all doom and gloom in the primary. But this has been predictable for a long time now."

Kashinsky stresses that the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries show "some warning signs for Trump, particularly among independents and more moderate Republicans."

"In New Hampshire," Kashinsky notes, "64 percent of undeclared voters sided with Haley, according to exit polls."

Never Trump conservative Fergus Cullen, who formerly chaired the New Hampshire GOP, endorsed Haley in his state but is hoping that Trump loses the general election if he's the nominee.

"Those of us who oppose Trump may not be able to prevent his renomination," Cullen told Politico, "but we should be able to prevent him from winning a general."

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