James Carville is 'certain' Harris will win — Here are 3 reasons why

23 October 2024

With the United States' 2024 presidential election less than two weeks away, many polls continue to show a very close race. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has small single-digit leads in some national and battleground state polls, while her GOP rival, former President Donald Trump, is slightly ahead in others.

The Hill's Amie Parnes', in an article published on October 23, takes a look at Democratic insiders who privately fear that the campaign is "slipping further away" from Harris. But in a New York Times guest op-ed/essay published the same day, veteran Democratic strategist/consultant James Carville lays out three reasons why he is "certain" Harris will win.

A different Democratic strategist, presumably interviewed on condition of anonymity, told The Hill, "Everyone keeps saying, 'It's close.' Yes, it's close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that. Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No."

Another Democratic strategist, also quoted anonymously, told The Hill, "If this is a vibe election, the current vibes ain't great."

But the 79-year-old Carville doesn't see it that way at all.

In his New York Times op-ed/essay, Carville argues, "There is a palpable anxiety wailing on the winds of American life right now. More than in any other election in my lifetime, I've been consistently asked by people of all stripes and creeds: 'Can Kamala Harris win this thing? Are we going to be OK?' This sentiment is heard over and over from sweaty Democratic operatives who all too often love to run to the press with their woes."

Carville continues, "While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."

According to Carville, Harris is headed for victory because: (1) "Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different," (2) "Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves," and (3) "It's just a feeling."

Carville acknowledges that #3 is "100 percent emotional" but points out that Harris has a very broad range of support — from Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney and his equally conservative daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyoming), to self-described "democratic socialist" Rep. Alexandria-Occasion Cortez (D-New York).

"If the Cheneys and AOC get that the Constitution and our democracy are on the ballot," Carville writes, "every true conservative and every true progressive should get it too. A vast majority of Americans are rational, reasonable people of good will…. For the past decade, Mr. Trump has infected American life with a malignant political sickness, one that would have wiped out many other global democracies."

Carville adds, "On January 6, 2021, our democracy itself nearly succumbed to it. But Mr. Trump has stated clearly that this will be the last time he runs for president. That is exactly why we should be exhilarated by what comes next: Mr. Trump is a loser. He is going to lose again."

Read James Carville's full New York Times op-ed/essay at this link (subscription required) and The Hill's reporting here.

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