'Let’s be realists': Conservative lays out game plan for surviving 'nightmare scenario' if Trump wins

17 July 2024

Historian/author Ruth Ben-Ghiat, known for her expertise on authoritarianism, has been cautioning Donald Trump's critics against giving into "despair" — often arguing that "despair" is a tool authoritarians and autocrats use to advance their agenda.

Similarly, in The Bulwark, Never Trump conservatives Bill Kristol and Tim Miller called for a "rejection of the fatalist rhetoric from the left." Progressives who view a second Trump presidency as inevitable, according to Kristol and Miller, aren't being helpful to "pro-democracy forces."

In a July 16 column for The Bulwark, Never Trumper Jonathan V. Last warns against "despair" but also lays out a game plan for coping with the strong possibility of a second Trump presidency.

"Let us be realists," Last argues. "Donald Trump is likely to be returned to the White House. He is likely to win a popular plurality. The Supreme Court has told him that he is immune from criminal consequences for official actions he takes as president. He has shed the grownup Republicans who, during his first term, tried to keep him from breaking too many laws. And he is likely to return to power with Republicans also having control of the House and Senate."

Last continues, "It would be nice to hope that the floodwaters stop rising before they destroy the dam. But in the meantime, the people with power should start filling sandbags and trying to reinforce the levies."

The columnist goes on to cite steps that opponents of the far-right MAGA movement should take. One is getting U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is 70 and a diabetic, to "retire immediately" — which, Last notes, could mean the difference between a 7-2 GOP majority on the High Court and the current 6-3 GOP majority.

Another step Last recommends is knowing the limits of Trump's "pardon powers" if he returns to the White House. Last also encourages awareness of a president's ability to "put pressure on the court-martial system to make it harder for soldiers to refuse illegal orders."

According to Last, Trump's critics need to plan for "worst-case scenarios" in which he tries to use the National Guard against political opponents.

"There are 50 state National Guards, which can be activated by their respective governors," Last explains. "But the president can also, in theory, activate state National Guards. The nightmare scenario is this: What happens if President Trump attempts to activate and domestically deploy a state National Guard contrary to the wishes of the governor?"

Last continues, "It's not hard to envision such a scenario. Let's say there are anti-Trump protests in Seattle. Trump tries to activate the Washington State National Guard to quell them. Gov. Jay Inslee does not want the Guard out in the streets of Seattle. What happens? This is a live question, and it's not clear if the president, through DoD, can override the orders of the governor, or if the DoD's power over state National Guards is limited to pulling federal funding of them."

Jonathan V. Last's full column for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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