'Nothing is safe': Analyst warns 'stress and danger' will escalate as election 'storm' draws closer

12 July 2024

After President Joe Biden's press conference on Thursday, July 11, many pundits on MSNBC applauded his command of the issues — especially on foreign policy — and argued that he performed much better than he did two weeks earlier during his erratic, widely criticized debate performance with presumptive 2024 GOP nominee Donald Trump.

But they also pointed out that the number of Democrats calling for Biden to drop out of the race has continued to grow, as they fear that the June 27 debate on CNN did his campaign irreparable harm.

In a lengthy column published by the conservative website The Bulwark, journalist Jonathan V. Last warns that "stress and danger" will only "get worse" as the United States' 2024 presidential election "storm" draws closer.

Last has three main points: Biden's campaign is in serious trouble, finding a Democratic replacement would be complicated and difficult, and Trump isn't growing any less dangerous.

"We are on the verge of a jailbreak in the Democratic Party," the Never Trumper observes. "The signs are everywhere, from weaker polling, to new vulnerabilities on the map, to a fundraising crash, to more reports that Biden is compromised. This is what it looks like when a party has lost confidence in its leader."

Last adds, "If Biden had the ability to restore that confidence, then he would have demonstrated it already."

Last goes on to describe three examples of "magical thinking" coming from Democrats: "Magical Thinking #1: Biden is going to be OK," "Magical Thinking #2: Democrats can come up with an exciting way to choose a new nominee who everyone will then get behind," and "Magical Thinking #3: Kamala Harris is a safe choice."

Last argues, "The most logical replacement — and probably the best replacement — is Kamala Harris…. In other words, there are no guarantees. Biden could stay and win. Biden could stand down, and the new nominee could lose. Nothing is 'safe.'"

The Bulwark journalist warns that according to an abundance of polling data, Trump has a good chance of winning both the electoral vote and the popular vote.

"Can you imagine what it would feel like to wake up on November 6 and discover that a plurality of Americans chose the insurrectionist who attempted a coup?" Last writes. "Imagine what such an administration would be emboldened to do. The black swans: They are everywhere around us.

Jonathan V. Last's full column for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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