This blue state governor should be way ahead of her 'Trumpian' anti-abortion’ rival: journalist

27 October 2022

New York State’s gubernatorial race is one of the blue state battles that Democratic strategists and organizers have grown worried about. Although Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul has been ahead of her Republican challenger, Rep. Lee Zeldin, in polls released during the second half of October, some of them are surprisingly close considering how Democratic-leaning New York State is.

A Siena poll found Zeldin trailing Hochul by 11 percent, but according to Quinnipiac, she is only ahead of him by 4 percent. A WNYT-TV/SurveyUSA poll found Hochul with a 6 percent lead.

In an article published by The Nation on October 27, Ross Barkan offers some possible reasons why Hochul isn’t way ahead of “Trumpian Congressman” Zeldin in a blue state that President Joe Biden won by 23 percent. The journalist stresses that Zeldin is clearly to the right of New York State’s last Republican governor, George Pataki.

“It goes without saying that a Hochul defeat would be a gutting loss for Democrats in New York — even the progressive flank that has long been wary of her,” Barkan writes. “Zeldin is no George Pataki. He’s not even a relative moderate in the mold of Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan, two Republicans who led blue states while distancing themselves from Trump. Though he represents a Long Island swing district, he voted against certifying the 2020 election results. He was an early, enthusiastic Trump supporter and has never, at any point, recanted. He is a fiscal and social conservative; he celebrated the overturning of Roe v. Wade and has said he’d appoint a ‘pro-life’ state health commissioner.”

Barkan continues, “Given all of this, how is Zeldin nipping at the heels of Hochul, who governs a state that last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1984 — a state that handed Cuomo a 24-point win in 2018? There is a confluence of factors, some particular to Hochul and others far beyond her control.”

Barkan describes Zeldin as a “Ron DeSantis-style” candidate who is “disciplined” and has “spoken to anxieties over inflation and rising crime.”

“The national environment for Democrats at the moment is dismal, and Hochul is going to pay some kind of price for that,” Barkan observes. “Also, Zeldin is campaigning enthusiastically in ways Hochul simply is not. He shows up in New York City, on Long Island, and upstate. He courts the press, left and right alike. Right-wing super PACs are helping him compete with Hochul’s spending advantage. The governor, meanwhile, had been content with a Rose Garden strategy, making relatively few public appearances in the five boroughs.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times’ editorial board endorsed Hochul in an editorial published on October 22, arguing that Hochul, if she wins on November 8, would be much better for New York State than Zeldin — who, the Times stressed, is no moderate.

The Times’ editorial board wrote, “New York has a long, proud tradition of moderate, thoughtful Republicans, from George Pataki to Nelson Rockefeller. Mr. Zeldin is not part of this tradition. Over and over again, he has demonstrated a loyalty to Trumpism over his oath to defend American democracy and the Constitution. In his campaign for governor, he makes spurious arguments about crime, and his public safety plan appears to be little more than returning to the zero-tolerance policies that have no clear connection to improving safety. Ads from Mr. Zeldin’s campaign use threatening images of Black men to stoke panic, and one features a crime that took place in California. And the plans Mr. Zeldin has laid out during this campaign lack a serious interest in the work of governing at a time when the state needs strong, energetic leadership.”

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