Last week’s primary election didn’t feature any races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, but Georgia Democrats still feel like they won.
If you are one of the more than 2 million Georgians who cast a ballot, you will likely recall the poll worker asking you to choose a Democratic, Republican or nonpartisan ballot.
In all, Democrats pulled more than 1 million ballots to Republicans’ nearly 940,000, or about 52.6% to 45.4%.
Democratic Party of Georgia Chairman Charlie Bailey said that margin is the biggest for Democrats since 1998 and shows that voters are ready to line up in November behind candidates like U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominees for U.S. Senate and Georgia governor.
“It’s just another piece of evidence of growing Democratic momentum, the work of the party, the strength of Jon Ossoff, the strength of Keisha Lance Bottoms coming into this governor’s race,” he said. “People are fed up with (Republicans), and what those numbers in the primary tell you is that that momentum is building towards November, when they’re going to vote these Republicans out.”
In 2018, a midterm year with President Donald Trump in the White House and an open race for Georgia governor at the top of the ticket, Republicans pulled more ballots than Democrats by about 52% to 48%.
Comparing the number of ballots drawn is not a perfect measure. Some people choose the other party’s ballot because they live in an area dominated by that party and they want to have a say in local races, or because they want to promote a weaker opponent for their candidate in the general election.
Still, the discrepancy spells good news for Democrats looking ahead to the Nov. 3 election, says Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie.
“What it connotes or implies is that Democratic candidates are capturing the imagination of voters in ways that, if this energy can be sustained, could be helpful for them in terms of flipping seats nationally, and in Republican states like Georgia, narrowing those margins between Democrats and Republicans, even in contests where Republicans are the odds-on favorite,” she said.
The difference in ballots is even more notable because Republicans had more high-profile races, said University of Georgia political science professor Trey Hood. No Democrat challenged incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, while Republicans had competitive races for U.S. Senate and Georgia governor at the top of the ticket.
Hood said it’s also notable that Republicans who voted on Election Day did not outnumber Democrats by a large margin. Republicans only had about 4,000 more voters on Election Day than Democrats, about 508,000 to 504,000. Hood said that might signal a shift in GOP voter behavior, with more conservatives preferring to cast a ballot during Georgia’s three weeks of early voting.
“I don’t know that we can expect to necessarily see a huge surge in Republican turnout on Election Day anymore,” he said.
Results also show demographics that tend to favor Democratic candidates in Georgia had a strong showing.
Statistically, Black voters in Georgia largely favor Democrats, and they made up nearly 32% of the vote.
“If Black turnout was 31% in a general election, yeah, that would be probably a good Democratic year,” Hood said. “I mean, before now, the highest it’s ever been is about 29%. And the more Black turnout as a percentage of the total electorate, the less of the white share of the vote you have to draw off as a Democrat. So if that pattern held and Black turnout was 31% in the general, it would be big.”
Data from the secretary of state’s office also shows that the electorate was nearly 57% female and 43% male. That number is likely boosted by high turnout among Black women, who are registered to vote at a higher rate than Black men.
Still, the high Democratic turnout was not enough to land a pair of Democratic-aligned candidates on the state Supreme Court, and not everyone thinks the numbers show the wind is at Democrats’ back.
Georgia Republican Party Chairman Josh McKoon said turnout in primary elections does not correlate with general election turnout.
McKoon said he chalks up the ballot discrepancy to the typical midterm backlash to the party in the White House and Democrats having a competitive field for governor for what he said was the first time in more than two decades.
“It was Mark Taylor and then it was Jason Carter, then it was Stacey Abrams twice,” he said. “Now, this time they actually had a wide open primary, and a lot of people ran. And so, yes, it’s not surprising that they had more than their usual turnout because usually they don’t have anything to turn out for. So, I mean, there’s not really a surprise there.”
McKoon said Georgia Republicans won’t be resting on their laurels, but he’s confident that their messaging will resonate with voters come the fall.
“Georgia is an extremely competitive state, and we’re going to have to earn our victory in November,” he said. “But I think that Georgia Republicans have a really good record to run on. We’ve got tremendous economic success to run on. We’ve got low unemployment in our state. Our state’s been consistently ranked the number one state to do business.”
Gillespie said while Democrats have reason to be optimistic, November’s race is far from a sure thing.
“(Republicans) don’t have the same numerical advantages that they had 20 years ago, but the fundamentals still privilege Republicans,” she said. “And even where you can see greater Democratic engagement and where you can infer greater Democratic excitement, that sometimes means that Democratic candidates lose by smaller margins. It doesn’t guarantee them victory. They still have to campaign and prepare like they are underdogs.”
Bailey said the Democratic Party of Georgia is ready for action and poised to take advantage of the four-week period before the runoff while Republicans candidates are still duking it out over the GOP Senate and governor’s nominations.
“This will be the biggest and the best coordinated campaign this state has ever seen, and that is the work we are doing,” he said. “Ain’t nobody around here sitting around and just expecting something. We are going to push with everything we have.”