Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans in 2011 (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)
In 2021, conservative Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) committed what many MAGA Republicans — including President Donald Trump — consider an unpardonable sin: He voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate. Now, five years later, Cassidy is seeking reelection, but he may not make it to the general election in the 2026 midterms.
Cassidy is facing a bitter GOP primary battle that finds him competing for the nomination with former Rep. John Fleming (R-Louisiana) and Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Louisiana). Fleming has a very conservative resumé: he was a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus and was a prominent figure in the Tea Party movement during Barack Obama's presidency. But Trump views Letlow as the most MAGA of the contenders and has endorsed her.
Punchbowl News reporters Ally Mutnick, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman, in an article published on April 10, stress that the primary "has become a mess."
"The two-term incumbent senator is at risk of not even making the primary runoff, and he's fuming at the Senate Republican establishment for not helping him enough," the Punchbowl journalists explain. "President Donald Trump's hand-picked candidate has been unable to convert that golden-ticket endorsement into a definitive lead. And a third candidate who said he ignored entreaties to drop out from people close to Trump has emerged as a real threat to win."
Because Louisiana is deep red — Trump won the state by 22 percent in 2024 — it's unlikely the U.S. Senate seat will go Democratic in the general election. But in the meantime, the battle for the GOP nomination is, according to Mutnick, Bresnahan and Sherman, being plagued by "chaos and uncertainty."
The GOP primary is scheduled for May 16, but it could go to a runoff after that.
"It's highly unlikely any candidate will clear 50 percent in the GOP primary, meaning this race is headed to a June runoff," the reporters note. "Polling shows all three relatively close together. Letlow has a lead in two recent independent polls. At this point, Republican insiders believe any of the three candidates could advance."
Cassidy, according to Mutnick, Bresnahan and Sherman, is "furious" with the National Senatorial Campaign Committee (NRSC) and "Senate Majority Leader John Thune's political machine" because he "feels they haven't fully supported his reelection bid."
"Thune fundraised with Cassidy in January in Baton Rouge, raking in over $650,000 at the event," they report. "The NRSC has also cut video ads featuring Cassidy. But in a tense call with the NRSC, Cassidy said the committee wasn't spending enough on his behalf during the primary. NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper, in a response that included profanity, shot back that Cassidy shouldn't have voted to convict Trump, according to multiple sources familiar with the call…. Many of Cassidy's ads depict him as close to Trump — a clear attempt to obscure the reality that he voted to convict the president."
The Punchbowl reporters continue, "Letlow has spent $2.5 million on ads and has her super PAC, The Accountability Project. Letlow and her allies have been touting the Trump endorsements. Her team believes once they educate more voters that she is Trump's pick, Letlow will surge."