'Massive blow': Analyst reveals how Trump's budget bill would hurt his base the most

01 July

President Donald Trump at the UFC 316 in Newark, New Jersey on June 7, 2025 (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok/Flickr)

As Republican lawmakers near final approval of President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” experts warn that his core supporters will feel its impact most acutely.

An analysis published in The New York Times on Tuesday highlighted concerns that the sweeping fiscal package disproportionately benefits the wealthy while imposing sharp social safety net cuts on working-class and rural Republicans — the very demographic that forms Trump’s foundation.

Analysts quoted in the report emphasize that Trump'sbase, particularly rural residents of less-educated, lower-income MAGA-voting communities “stand to bear the brunt of its negative consequences."

Bobby Kogan of the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress told the Times it was “the biggest cut to programs for low‑income Americans ever,” warning the bill will decimate supports like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food stamps).

Yale’s Jacob Hacker told the publication that the demographics of Trump’s districts skew poorer and more rural, highlighting the irony of who will ultimately pay the price.

Michael Shepherd, a health-policy professor, said the bill "will in multiple ways be a massive blow to the working‑class and rural voters who have become core to Trump’s base.”

The report notes: "In its current form, which is changing by the hour, the measure, known popularly as B.B.B., would provide the upper classes, including Trump’s allies and donor base — corporations and the rich — with tax cuts worth approximately $4.45 trillion over 10 years."

"This pared-back social spending would adversely affect a large bloc of rural and exurban Republicans who played a crucial role in putting their party in control of the House and Senate and Trump in the White House," it adds.

Despite being passed by the Senate in a 51–50 vote with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaker, substantial differences remain between the House and Senate versions. Negotiators are racing to reconcile the final text before it reaches the president’s desk.

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