Dwindling support for Biden among key voters could spell trouble big trouble for his reelection campaign: report

When Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, he did so with a diverse coalition ranging from Blacks and Latinos to college-educated women. Biden, however, didn't perform as well among non-college-educated white males as Trump, making Black and female turnout all the more important.

The New York Times' Nate Cohn, in a report published on September 5, identifies a possible warning sign for Biden's 2024 reelection campaign: softening support among Blacks and Latinos, according to Times/Siena College polling.

"On average," Cohn explains, "Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by just 53 percent to 28 percent among registered nonwhite voters in a compilation of Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023, which includes over 1500 nonwhite respondents. The results represent a marked deterioration in Mr. Biden's support compared with 2020, when he won more than 70 percent of non-white voters."

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Cohn adds, "If he's unable to revitalize this support by next November, it will continue a decade-long trend of declining Democratic strength among voters considered to be the foundation of the party."

According to Cohn, Biden's "tepid support" among non-white voters "appears to be mostly responsible for the close race in early national surveys, which show Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump all but tied among registered voters even as Mr. Biden runs as well among white voters as he did four years ago."

"With more than a year to go until the election," Cohn reports, "there's plenty of time for Mr. Biden to reenergize his former supporters. Indeed, the Times/Siena data suggests that Mr. Biden could approach — though not match — his 2020 standing simply by reclaiming voters who say they backed him in the last election. But the possibility that his standing will remain beneath the already depressed levels of the last presidential election should not be discounted."

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The New York Times' full report can be found at this link (subscription required).