FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters during travel to Washington, D.C., from Palm Beach International Airport, Florida, U.S., November 30, 2025. REUTERS/Anna Rose Layden/File Photo
When Democrats won a variety of races in 2025's off-year elections, political strategists paid close attention to the margins of their victories. New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger not only defeated Republicans — they defeated them by double-digits. And in three Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections, Democrats were retained by a landslide.
In an op-ed published by MS NOW on December 1, journalist Michael A. Cohen (not to be confused with President Donald Trump's former personal attorney and fixer) emphasizes that the margins are crucial in a special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District — where State Rep. Aftyn Behn is up against Republican Matt Van Epps (a former Tennessee General Services commissioner).
Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by 22 percent in that district in 2024 (nationally, she lost the popular vote by roughly 1.5 percent). But according to an Emerson College/The Hill poll released on November 26, Van Epps is ahead by only 2 percent.
John G. Geer, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, told Cohen that Behn is facing a "steep climb" in that deep-red district. But he added, "Even making it a single-digit race is an accomplishment…. It is clear that the GOP is worried."
Cohen argues that Republicans wouldn't be spending so much money on that race if they weren't getting worried.
"A pro-Trump super PAC, two other outside conservative PACs and the National Republican Congressional Committee have already spent more than $2 million in support of Van Epps," Cohen explains. "That wouldn't be happening if Republicans felt comfortable that they had this race in the bag. Meanwhile, national Democrats, who initially seemed content to sit this race out, are also spending big…. The one thing that scares most members of Congress more than anything else is the prospect of a competitive election."
Cohen adds, "For the lion's share of Republicans in safe, heavily gerrymandered districts, they can generally waltz to victory. But if Behn loses by six or seven points, Republicans in districts that Trump won by less than 15 points might start getting a tad nervous. For those keeping score at home, that's 53 Republican members."
Michael A. Cohen's full op-ed for MS NOW is available at this link.