Crucial Senate race will determine if AZ moves in 'direction of California or Texas'

20 May 2024

Arizona, for many years, was a deep red state closely identified with the conservatism of Sen. Barry Goldwater and his successor, Sen. John McCain. But the state's political landscape has changed considerably from what it was during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

In 2024, Arizona has a Democratic governor (Katie Hobbs), a Democratic secretary of state (Kris Mayes), a Democratic U.S. senator (Mark Kelly) and an independent U.S. senator who used to be a Democrat (Kyrsten Sinema). Meanwhile, much of the Arizona GOP has abandoned old-school Goldwater/McCain conservatism in favor of far-right MAGA ideology.

With centrist Sinema not seeking reelection, the competition for her Senate seat will likely be a battle between liberal Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) and MAGA Republican Kari Lake.

In an op-ed published by the New York Times on May 20, Phoenix-based journalist Tom Zoellner stresses that Arizona's 2024 U.S. Senate race is about much more than Gallego versus Lake — it is a referendum on competing visions for the state.

"Arizona has become an epicenter of political discord and conflict over issues that have roiled the national discourse," Zoellner explains. "In the fall, the outrage over an abortion ban from 1864 and a potential ballot initiative on the issue are likely to motivate Democrats, and the outrage over chaos at the border is likely to motivate Republicans. The margins in recent elections have been razor-thin: Purple Arizona is very much up for grabs in this election and beyond."

The Phoenix resident adds, "Democrats might be thinking about building on their success in recent elections to secure the state as a future Sun Belt bulwark. Republicans want to reestablish dominance in the state."

Democrats, according to Zoellner, are hoping that Arizona's future will be "embodied by" Gallego.

"Arizona may be offering a peek at the future of American politics, and the outcome of the Senate race will offer evidence for Arizona's trajectory," Zoellner argues. "Will the state continue to shade blue, as its older conservative base ages, or will it act like a Texas or Florida, with a red conservative attitude and blue pockets in the cities?.... If Mr. Gallego succeeds not only in winning the seat against Ms. Lake, but also, in dealing a convincing blow to the MAGA minority she represents, it would be one indication that Arizona — while retaining its unpredictable independent edge — is moving more in the direction of California than of Texas."

Read Tom Zoellner's full New York Times op-ed at this link (subscription required).

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