'Lost the plot': Constitutional law professor explains why 'ceiling still remains' on Trump in 2024

Since President Joe Biden's widely criticized performance during his June 27 debate with former President Donald Trump, Democrats have been debating whether or not Biden should be the nominee. Some prominent Democrats have called for Biden to drop out of the race, but others — from Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Jaime Harrison to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) — have reiterated their support for Biden's reelection campaign.

Many polls released after the debate have found Trump with small single-digit leads, although an NPR/Marist poll conducted July 9-10 found Biden with a 2 percent lead. Meanwhile, polls of key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have been showing Trump ahead.

But constitutional law professor Anthony Michael Kreis, in a thread posted on X, formerly Twitter, on July 15, argues that Trump — not Biden — is the candidate with a ceiling in terms of support.

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"Folks have lost the plot on the election," Kreis tweets. And he goes on to lay out some reasons why it's way too soon to assume Biden's campaign is doomed.

Kreis explains, "(1) In 1968, 1988, and 2016 we have examples of polling showing the winning candidates behind in the polls. Summer presidential politics are weird. Lots of time. (2) Biden's numbers fluctuate more than Trump's. Trump's ceiling remains."

The constitutional law professor adds, "(3) If point number 2 is true, then the outcome in November is really is a question of Democratic turnout and third-party siphoning off. (4) This is not like 1968, where the world is spiraling out of control. Things are very bleak in 2024, but they are not great comparators…. (5) Finally, folks saying whatever reflects their feelings in the moment makes for good headlines and fuels palace intrigue, but it's less-than-ideal analysis. "

When Twitter user Mia Moore responded that 1980 was a "more appropriate comparison," Kreis responded, "Not really. Very different dynamics at play. There's really no one-for-one comparison I'd make, other than to say things can be fluid.

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