An analysis of Texas shows Democrats could really turn it blue in 2020. Here's how to do it

Now that Democrats have flipped Virginia blue, flipped the governorship in Kentucky, and defended the office in Louisiana, it’s time to officially turn our sights to 2020 and some new ripe red state targets.

There is no bigger target than Texas, where demographic trends and a truly batshit, out-of-touch, right-wing GOP are setting the conditions for monumental change. Already, Democrats have made incremental progress over the last few elections — in 2018, progressive activists won lots of local elections and scored some big legislature wins in the suburbs, laying the groundwork for even bigger gains in 2020.

Now, Democrats are 9 seats away from actually controlling the State House of Representatives for the first time since 2002 (it’s impossible to underscore just how seismic a shift a blue Texas would create for national politics). One of them is up for grabs in January: Eliz Markowitz is running strong in a special election in TX-HD-28, and if we win there, our momentum may be unstoppable.

Because Texas has a very early filing deadline for would-be legislature candidates, we can start digging into the progressive candidates who we should be helping out. The entire list thus far can be found at Progressives Everywhere’s 2020 target doc (very much a work in progress), but I wanted to highlight a few races below:

HD-138: Republican incumbent Rep. Dwayne Bohac won re-election by just 47 votes last year, barely surviving a blue wave that hit the Houston area. Faced with another fight for his life in 2020, Bohac decided to call it quits at the end of this term, announcing in September that he’d see himself to the door instead of being swept out next November. That puts Akilah Bacy, running again after her near-win in 2018, in the pole position to take the West Houston seat. She’ll have to get past Josh Wallenstein, another Democratic challenger, but given how close she came last time, as well as her work in immigration and employment law, we’re predisposed to backing Bacy.

HD-108: Another close 2018 race and another Democrat looking to finish the job. Republican Rep. Morgan Meyer won re-election in this East Dallas district by just 221 votes the last time around, which must have been startling for him after cruising to victory against just token Libertarian opposition in 2016. The woman who pushed him to the brink, journalist Joanna Cattanach, is running again. She too will face a competitive primary, but her opponent, Paul Terry, is a well-funded investment banker, so we’re sticking with Cattanach. Read more about her in this good profile.

HD-67: Here’s where we get into the warped-brain culture barbarians that seem primed for ouster. Republican Rep. Jeff Leach was a long-time member of the Freedom Caucus before a close call in 2018, and while he left the group, that was more symbolic than anything else. This year, Leach was the sponsor of the Texas version of the ridiculous anti-abortion “born alive” bill, which would criminalize any doctor or nurse that did not “give full medical treatment to babies born alive after abortion,” according to the Texas Observer. He also has been caught up in a scandal surrounding the corrupt House Speaker. There are a number of solid Democratic candidates running to replace him, so we’ll hold off on any endorsements here for now.

HD-92: GOP Rep. Jonathan Stickland is one of the biggest far-right trolls in the Texas legislature. Thankfully, he’s not running for re-election — the guy is truly a trash can overflowing with toxic waste. Here’s how the Dallas Observer described him: “Stickland, a high school dropout who spent his pre-legislature days talking about smoking pot and how ‘(r)ape is non existent in marriage’ on fantasy football message boards, will end his seven years in office much as he began it, as the frat boy-Libertarian bull in Austin's china shop.” His retirement opens the seat up for Democrat Steve Riddell, who nearly toppled Stickland in 2018.

HD-96: Rep. Bill Zedler made headlines nationwide earlier this year when he suggested anti-biotics could take the place of childhood vaccinations, which is of course scientific lunacy. Zelder, a long-time anti-vaxxer, was pushing to make vaccines optional in the midst of a measles outbreak. He’s not just a dipshit, but a hateful dipshit; a month before introducing the anti-vax bill, he filed a major anti-LGBTQ bill that would have allowed across-the-board discrimination under the guise of “religious freedom.” He has two opponents; Ryan Ray nearly took him out in 2018 and won a School Board seat the next year, while Joe Drago is a progressive lawyer and first-time candidate.

HD-26: Let’s close today’s jaunt around Texas with a Republican so homophobic and toxic, even his own son had to speak out against him. In 2015, GOP Rep. Rick Miller introduced a bill that would ban localities from passing anti-discrimination ordinances. His son Beau, an openly gay attorney and activist, responded to the bill by saying “While I love my dad very much, I am extremely disappointed by his actions and will do everything I can to prevent that bill, or any such legislation, from becoming law.” Miller won re-election in 2018 by less than five points, and his Democratic opponent, L. Sarah DeMerchant, is back to finish him off.