Alaska sees 'awfully good' sign of GOP midterm disaster: conservative

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with the media while walking with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 24, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Republicans have been taking desperate steps to ensure the long-deep-red state of Alaska doesn’t flip blue in the coming midterms, but with its primary underway, there are “awfully good” signs emerging that the GOP has reason to worry as November approaches. This is according to conservative political analyst Chris Stirewalt, a longtime contributor to right-wing media outlets like Fox and NewsNation, who wrote in the Hill on Friday about how the strong primary performance of Alaskan Democrats could provide an “invaluable look at where voters are heading in a general election.”

Currently, Alaska is in the middle of its nonpartisan primary, in which candidates from all parties duke it out on a ranked-choice ballot. As Stirewalt notes, Trump ally and donor Elon Musk has provided financial backing to an effort to repeal the state’s nonpartisan system and end its campaign finance laws, which would eliminate the requirement that candidates disclose “dark money” contributions. The widespread conservative support for this endeavor makes it clear that Republicans believe they will benefit from the traditional two-party ballot and unregulated campaign financing.

But if Musk’s effort succeeds, asserts Stirewalt, election forecasters will miss Alaska’s current system. “With one of the latest primaries on the calendar,” he writes, “Alaska gives us an invaluable look at where voters are heading in a general election now just 74 days away.” And according to Stirewalt, things are heading in the Democrats’ direction.

“As of this writing, with perhaps as much as 20 percent of the vote presumably still drifting in on malamute dogsleds or carried like abalone in the paws of adorable sea otters,” explains Stirewalt of the race for the Senate seat, “former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is the top vote-getter in Alaska’s nonpartisan primary, leading incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by more than 5 points.” What’s more, he notes that when you add up the present standings for all Republicans vs. all Democrats on the ballot, it comes to 48 percent vs 50 percent, respectively. So not only is a blue candidate leading, but so is the Democratic Party overall.

“This is hardly to say that this means that Peltola will win in November by 2 points, but this is an awfully good indication of how the electorate is looking with the general election very nearly upon us,” says Stirewalt. “Good polling, as we have often observed and has been proven quite right of late, is very hard to come by these days. But in a nonpartisan primary, you get a live feed on how persuadable voters are breaking.”

According to Stirewalt, “This is the third cycle in which Alaska has had its everyone-in-the-pool primary in effect, and in contested statewide races, most notably the 2022 gubernatorial race, primary results have been strongly predictive of the general. And with Peltola proving herself to be a savvy campaigner with moves like saying thanks, but no thanks to an unsolicited endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris, Peltola definitely looks like she’s in the driver’s seat.”

The GOP is forecasted to take major losses in the midterms due to the historic unpopularity of President Donald Trump, with many predicting the party will lose its majority in the House and possibly even the Senate. If Stirewalt is right, then Republicans have good reason to worry about the latter, which will upend the balance of power in Washington and sharply curtail Trump's agenda.

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