Trump's future could depend on Arizona's special election — here's why

U.S. President Donald Trump walks with Marine One in the background, as he departs for New York City to attend the 80th United Nations General Assembly, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., September 22, 2025. Reuters/Al Drago

For many years, Arizona was a deep red state that was closely identified with the GOP conservatism of Sen. Barry Goldwater and his successor, Sen. John McCain. But in 2025, Arizona is — like Pennsylvania — a volatile swing state that can move left or right. Arizona has a Democratic governor (Katie Hobbs) and two Democratic U.S. senators (Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego), yet Donald Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election after losing it in 2020.

In an article published on Tuesday, September 23, Politico's Meredith Lee Hill explains why a U.S. House special election being held that day is "one of" Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-Louisiana) "biggest leadership tests yet."

Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic nominee in that race and the daughter of the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Arizona), "told Politico she plans to become the 218th and clinching supporter of a bipartisan effort to force public disclosure of federal investigative files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein," Hill reports.

"It's a controversy that Johnson has been working desperately to snuff out in recent months on behalf of President Donald Trump, who has called the effort a 'Democrat hoax,'" the Politico reporter explains. "Now, he will have to decide whether to pull rank and settle a fight that has divided his conference or let the matter play out on the House floor. Grijalva — who is heavily favored to succeed her late father, Raúl Grijalva, in a district Trump lost by 22 points — said she will be pleased to force the issue."

Hill continues, "She would be eligible to sign immediately after she is sworn in, likely early next month…. Grijalva's signature would complete a process launched by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) after the Epstein controversy exploded over the summer, cornering Republican leaders between Trump and GOP voters who have insisted on transparency in the government's handling of the abuser."

Johnson discussed the controversy with Politico, dismissing it as a "moot point."

The House speaker told Polltico, "The Oversight Committee is working overtime on this. They're releasing every single page of documents every time they receive one. I mean, it’s all out in the open. It genuinely is a moot point."

Read Meredith Lee Hill's full article for Politico at this link.

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