A No Labels candidate could be a 'disaster' for democracy in 2024: analysis

Never Trump conservatives don't necessarily dislike the No Labels movement from a policy standpoint, but many of them have been railing against the movement relentlessly because they fear that a No Labels candidate could act as a spoiler and put Donald Trump back in the White House.

The Lincoln Project's Rick Wilson, a Never Trumper and former GOP strategist, has been a scathing critic of No Labels — as he views President Joe Biden, policy differences and all, as the best chance to save the United States from authoritarianism in the 2024 election. Another Never Trumper, conservative consultant Amanda Carpenter, argues that a No Labels ticket could be a "disaster" for the United States next year.

In an article published by The Bulwark on November 8, Carpenter and fellow Protect Democracy member Ben Raderstorf argue, "It's not just that a third-party ticket can't win or that it would be likely to help Donald Trump — although both of those things are true. It's that even if a third-party ticket succeeds, meaning it wins any states, it could cause an even worse disaster."

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Carpenter and Raderstorf continue, "Why? Because under the Constitution, whoever gets the most votes in the Electoral College is not automatically elected president. If no one wins a majority of electoral votes — at least 270 — then the election results are functionally voided and the House of Representatives picks the next president in a 'contingent election.' Given how closely divided the country is, it's possible that we could be in precisely this position if a third party wins even a single state."

Carpenter and Raderstorf lay out a scenario in which President Joe Biden wins 266 electoral votes in 2024, GOP nominee Donald Trump wins 263 and a No Labels candidate wins nine.

"Imagine this…. Biden has more Electoral College votes but doesn't have the 270 needed to win because No Labels kept both Biden and Trump from meeting that threshold," the Protect Democracy members explain. "How would the contingent election work? The 12th Amendment mandates that the House pick the president from among the top three recipients of Electoral College votes."

Carpenter and Raderstorf continue, "In making its choice, the House votes by delegation, with each state getting one vote. Republicans currently control 26 state delegations, and are almost certain to maintain that control after 2024. Their choice is all but ensured."

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Read Amanda Carpenter and Ben Raderstorf's full article for The Bulwark at this link.