U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
If Republicans lose the U.S. House of Representatives but hold the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms, they will take some consolation when it comes to President Donald Trump's nominees. A Democratic House majority would be a major stumbling block to Trump's legislative agenda, but holding the Senate would still give him an advantage with nominees for his administration, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the federal courts.
After the 2018 midterms, in fact, Republicans took comfort in knowing that even though they lost the House in a big way, they were still keeping the Senate.
But according to MS NOW's Ebony Davis, some GOP strategists are sounding the alarm about the possibility of their party losing the Senate in November.
"For most of the 2026 cycle," Davis reports in an article published on April 20, "Republicans have been all but certain they will hold the Senate after November. The confidence was structural. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber. They have a favorable map: To win 51 seats, Democrats would need to hold all their current seats, flip North Carolina and Maine — and still win another two states that Trump carried by at least 13 points in 2024. The geography was so forbidding to Democrats that analysts with The Cook Political Report, last August, called the party's path to a majority 'herculean.' Now, just over six months out from Election Day, the herculean suddenly seems plausible."
One of the Republicans who is openly worried about the 2026 midterms is Matt Rexroad.
The GOP consultant told MS NOW, "There's a storm coming. This is the time to hold what you've got, get good candidates and just try to hold on to the seats we have…. There is energy on the ground among the grassroots of Democrats. We've seen it all across the country. Republicans need to find a way to energize their base and make sure they turn out and that they can match the intensity in terms of turnout."
Republican strategist Evan Siegfried told MS NOW, "There are warning signs in some races. The concerns right now are if we're seeing an expanded map, that means we're going to need to go and play defense.… in more places…. We have to acknowledge the reality that it is still economically very tough to exist at this point in time in the United States for most Americans."
Democratic strategist Mari Manoogian, executive director of the group The Next 50, believes that if the midterms become a referendum on Trump's presidency, it could be bad for Republican candidates.
Manoogian told MS NOW, "We're seeing the American people, frankly, sounding the alarm on executive leadership right now. The next time that they have an opportunity to voice their opinion about this is at the ballot box here in November, and they're looking for new leadership in the Senate to be a check on the president."
However, Manoogian, cautions fellow Democrats about becoming overconfident and warns that members of her party need a bigger message than "just being anti-Trump."
Manoogian told MS NOW, "I would be under no illusions about how the Republicans will raise an enormous sum of money and deploy it strategically across the battlegrounds. You can't take your foot off the gas on any of this."