New analysis explains why a Herschel Walker victory appears farfetched
A new analysis is explaining why Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker may not have a viable chance at unseating Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) despite making it to the runoff.
In the analysis, The New York Times' Nate Cohn explores a number of possibilities that all appear to suggest the election won't turn out as Walker would hope. In addition to the flurry of scandals and unfavorable reports the Trump-backed candidate has faced, Cohn points out out on key issue. Comparing Walker to his Democratic opponent, Cohn wrote, "The core issue for Walker is simple: He is a flawed and unpopular candidate, while Warnock, by contrast, is fairly popular.
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He added, "And unlike in the November election, the two are the only candidates on the ballot in most of the state. This poses a much greater challenge to Walker in the runoff election than it did in the general election."
Cohn went on to note another issue for Walker: the difficulty in getting voters back to the polls for a second time. The writer notes that many voters headed to the polls because the governor's race was also a priority. This time, that won't be the case.
According to Cohn, Walker may have managed to get down-ballot votes simply because of his Republican Party affiliation. "It’s easy to imagine several kinds of voters who backed Walker in November but who won’t be showing up this time. There’s the Republican who didn’t like Walker, but who showed up to vote for another Republican — like Brian Kemp in the governor’s race," he explained.
"There’s the Republican who might grudgingly vote for Walker if the Senate were on the line — as it appeared to be in November — but doesn’t think the stakes are high enough to support someone who 57% of voters said does not have strong moral values, according to the AP VoteCast survey," Cohn noted.
The data for final voter turnout also signals trouble for Walker, according to Cohn. "The final turnout data from the November election also raises the possibility that it will be challenging for Walker to enjoy a more favorable turnout than he did last month," he pointed out.
"Turnout among previous Republican primary voters outpaced Democratic turnout, in no small part because the Black share of the electorate dipped to its lowest level since 2006," he also wrote, "Indeed, Republican candidates won the most votes for U.S. House and the other statewide offices."
He concluded, "The race may be close, but it’s hard to think of a good signal for Walker."
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