These little-noticed polls are the biggest signal yet that Trump is going down

These little-noticed polls are the biggest signal yet that Trump is going down
President Donald J. Trump disembarks Air Force One Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, at Erie International Airport in Erie, Pa. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)

President Donald Trump is heading into election day as the decided underdog against Democratic rival Joe Biden — but elections analysts who have spent weeks looking over little-noticed district-level polls say that Trump's position may be even worse than other polls suggest.

Journalist Brett LoGiurato has taken a deep dive into dozens of district-level polls released in the last two months and has found that they paint a "brutal" picture for the president.

"With help from FiveThirtyEight over the past few weeks, I have gathered together more than 80 US House polls, all of which were released in September, October, or the early days of November," he writes. "Together, these polls continue to paint a clear picture. Biden is performing better than Clinton by an average of 9.5 points."

What's more, the polls show that Biden is only performing worse than 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in just two of the districts surveyed.

LoGiurato's findings are similar to those of Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman, who has access to private district-level polls that have shown similar erosions of support for Trump among key groups.

Read the entire analysis here.

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