Florida poised to deliver election night death blow to Trump presidency
It's Civiqs' first look at Florida, and it's finding what most other pollsters have found: a slight Joe Biden lead.Civiqs conducted the poll October 17-20, sampling 863 likely voters, and an MoE of 3.5%
|DONALD TRUMP (R-INC)||47|
|JOE BIDEN (D)||51|
The Economist's poll aggregator (which strips out undecideds), has the Florida race at 51.9 to 48.1 Biden, a 3.8-point advantage. So this is well within the polling consensus.
Florida will count its ballots by election night, so if Donald Trump hopes to sow fear and confusion over uncounted ballots in Michigan and Pennsylvania, this isn't going to help. In fact, election-night loses in Florida, North Carolina, or Georgia will immediately signal Trump's inevitable loss, and take the wind out of any attempts to sow chaos and uncertainty.
Also of note, Biden is over 51%, meaning that if the numbers are accurate, undecided voters can't flip the election to Trump.
Down ballot, voters appear set to overwhelmingly approve a $15 minimum wage, 57-38, garnering the support of even 25% of Republicans. Meanwhile, the effort to institute an idiotic top-two jungle primary system (like the one we're saddled with in California and Washington too) looks headed toward comfortable defeat—36-51.
Of further note, Republican and former party savior Sen. Marco Rubio has an approval rating of 39-53, making him the least popular politician in the state. That should make for a fun 2022, when he is up for reelection. By comparison, the state's incompetent and odious governor Ron DeSantis, who has killed thousands by refusing to the COVID seriously, has a distressingly okay 46-49 favorability rating. (Which also shows that the sample isn't overly liberal.)
Luckily, we don't need Florida to win the White House. If we need it, we are bound to be disappointed by it. But the fact that this poll confirms a slight Biden lead gives hope that all the presidential drama can end early on Election Night, so we can enjoy the rest of the evening counting victories instead.