Biden or Trump? A few early voting clues reveal who has the edge
The 2020 presidential election has a historic early voter turnout with more than 80 million Americans casting their ballots before Election Day. With the massive early voter turnout, many are now wondering who the early voters will benefit. Is it Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden or President Donald Trump? A number of clues may indicate which candidate will benefit from early voting.
Here are a few clues:
1. New voters are heading to the polls - A new analysis shows early voting has attracted many new voters for the upcoming election. More than 1 out of 4 of all voters — approximately 27 percent — were either "new or infrequent voters," according to AP's analysis. So who are new voters casting their ballot for? According to the data, Democrats are getting the job done. The data indicates that 43 percent of the new or infrequent voters are registered Democrats, whereas only about a quarter of those early voters are registered Republicans.
Tom Bonier, who works for the political data firm TargetSmart, weighed in on Democrats' efforts to expand their electorate and how the party is benefiting from it.
"Democrats are already expanding their electorate," said Bonier. "That would certainly appear to be favorable for Biden — to be taken with the caveat we've heard a million times before, that we don't know how many other voters will come out on Election Day."
2. Democratic early voting lead - In addition to the new or infrequent voter analysis, overall early voting turnout also leans toward Democratic voters. As of Friday, October 30, Democrats lead in early voting making up 47 percent of the turnout. Republicans, on the other hand, only account for 33 percent of early voting turnout. While that does not guarantee an Election Day win, it does position the Democrats with a sizable advantage going into Election Day.
3. Black voter turnout remains steady - Black voter turnout may strongly impact Biden's ability to swing battleground states. For the 2016 election, Democrats suffered a decline in voter turnout in battleground states which likely contributed to the relatively close losses in multiple key states. According to WFLA, there has been a distinct surge in Black voter turnout in multiple key states that could greatly impact the outcome of the election.
There's been a surge in the older African-American vote. Black voters 65 and older are already one of the most reliable voting demographics, but according to TargetSmart data they have already surpassed their numbers in six key battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas.
4. Young voters may also offer a Democratic advantage - As previously reported by AlterNet, Biden carries a significant lead over Trump among young voters aged 18-24. Even among Millennials, Biden holds a stable lead over Trump which may also help Democratic voters. In the Sunbelt battlegrounds of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, young voter turnout accounted for 30 percent of the vote.
With the current clues, Democrats are going into Election Day will a sizable advantage. Although Republicans are hoping that they will have the turnout they need on Election Day, they are going into the big day needing a larger overhaul to maintain the White House.
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