Here's what the state of the presidential race really looks like

Here's what the state of the presidential race really looks like
Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour/Gage Skidmore

Let’s take a look at the current state of the Electoral College map.


Remember, Democratic nominee Joe Biden needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House. This is the baseline:

Some polling has shown Texas competitive, and there are plenty of indications that Alaska and Montana are also in play. But if Biden wins those states, he’s won a crapton of other states and the GOP firewall has crumbled.

Likewise, if Trump wins Minnesota, he’s already swept many of those battleground states on the map, and particularly the critical upper midwest states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So let’s call it 230-163 Biden, before a single battleground is called.

There is no recent polling in the two single-district electoral college votes in Maine and Nebraska. The safe bet is that Biden gets the Omaha-centric EV, and Trump gets the rural Maine EV. 233-164.

STATEELECTORAL VOTESPOLL AGGREGATETOTAL
MICHIGAN16Biden +7.6249-164
WISCONSIN10Biden +7.2259-164
PENNSYLVANIA20Biden +5.6279-164
ARIZONA11Biden +4290-164
FLORIDA29Biden +3.8319-164
NORTH CAROLINA15Biden +1.4334-164
GEORGIA16Trump +0.6350-164
IOWA6Trump +1.4350-170
OHIO18Trump +1.8350-188

Pennsylvania is currently the tipping-point state, and Biden is leading it by over five points in the polling aggregate. Every other state other than Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is gravy. They are the ballgame. But even if Biden were to lose one of those, every other state in play is Trump territory. His avenues for victory are myriad.

As always, don’t panic at any individual poll. Look at the aggregate. Also understand, people’s opinions don’t fluctuate. So if you see any poll jumping up or down, cast a skeptical eye and go back to the aggregate. Remember, Trump’s reelection numbers are tied to his approval rating. It doesn’t matter if you look at the Civiqs Trump job approval daily tracker or the Economist’s polling aggregate, all we see is a stable, non-moving political climate.

As of today, Biden wins. Trump is on the defensive, his campaign low on cash. As of now, things look great. Doesn’t mean they’ll stay that way! But Trump is running out of time, and we’re going to work to nail this thing down.

The Economist national polling aggregate, Biden 54.1-Trump 45.9.

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