Trump’s Crashing and Burning: FiveThirtyEight Projects Clinton Has 92.9% Chance of Winning

Brendan Gauthier
,
Salon
and
Brendan Gauthier
August 06, 2016Election '16

Political statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight released its 2016 presidential election forecast on Friday. In short, these next three months will be an uphill battle for GOP nominee Donald Trump.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to the forecast, has a 92.9% likelihood of winning the presidency, while Trump, has a 7.1% chance. Similarly, as of this writing, Clinton has a 95.1% chance to Trump’s 4.9% of a winning the popular vote.

Some good news for Libertarians: nominee Gary Johnson has a greater-than-zero (4.2%) chance of winning at least one electoral vote.

To determine these probabilities, FiveThirtyEight “simulates the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state.” Those odds are subject to change “every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.”

Find the full report here.

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