How California's Latino Republicans Could Be Trump's Final Primary Hurdle
After last night’s primary victory, Donald Trump’s path to the GOP presidential nomination is almost inevitable. Almost. With the California primary still to go, it would take a decisive stand of Republicans voting against Trump to hold his lead to under the 1,237 delegates required to avoid a contested convention in July. And there's a decent chance Trump might not have any Republican opponents by that point, with Kasich the last man standing.
But is there a large enough group of people disgusted by Trump’s racist rhetoric over the past few months who might fulfill such a criteria?
Oh, that’s right: The Latino community.
According to a Mother Jones article published today, an upcoming report shows that California Latinos could represent Trump’s final primary hurdle. The report, conducted by GOP consulting firms Grassroots Lab and Murphy Nasica, points to 11 of California’s 53 congressional districts, which united against Trump could “confer more delegates than 20 other states combined.”
Let’s be real though. Such an outcome would take, in Sanders-speak, a YUUUGE turnout of Latino Republicans. But for those with memories as short as Donald’s fingers, just remember this is the same guy who told the world Mexico is sending “criminals, drug dealers,” and “rapists” to the United States.
If Trump’s dreams of empire (and walls) are to be torn down, "it will largely be the result of Latino Republicans voting against his candidacy," said Mike Madrid of Grassroots Lab in an interview with Mother Jones.
And believe it or not, according to the report, Latino Republicans’ influence in California is greater than you may think. Though counting fewer than 1 in 5, Latino GOP votes will be worth an estimated 6.5 times that of their non-Latino counterparts. Essentially this comes down to the GOP voting rule that confers each congressional district with three delegates regardless of the actual number of Republican residents in the area. Josh Harkinson of Mother Jones explains it:
So a majority-white district in Orange County with 166,000 Republicans is worth the same as a majority-Latino one in East Lost Angeles with just 30,000 Republicans. In other words, those Republicans living in Democratic districts have the most powerful votes, and a disproportionate number of those Republicans, Madrid calculates, are Latinos.
So in essence though they may be spread out, when amassed, Latino voters could prove key in turning out against Trump.
“48 percent of registered-voter Hispanics are more enthusiastic to cast ballots in 2016 than they were in 2012,” reads some figures reported by The Hill. “Of that group, 41 percent attributed their enthusiasm to Donald Trump's presence in the race.”
Even if some of those Latinos remained on the fence, many in the community are already uniting against threat level orange. "I will not encourage Latinos to vote for him,” Massey Villarreal, a prominent Latino GOP member said last night on NBC News.
Can't you just picture Donald Trump sitting like Humpty Dumpty on his wall? All he needs is a little shove.