Why the Political Press Totally Didn't See Donald Trump's Surge Coming
It’s hard to miss the media’s looming sense of bewilderment over Donald Trump’s continued strong showing among Republican voters. As the bulling billionaire cements his status as this summer’s star GOP attraction, many pundits and reporters have been left scratching their heads over the turn of events.
Regularly dismissed one month ago as a campaign distraction, much of the Beltway media appeared to be in agreement that Trump’s campaign was nothing more than a joke and might not even be worth covering.
But now with poll after poll showing him racing to the front of the Republican pack, journalists are trying to make sense of it all. (The fallout from Trump’s attack on Sen. John McCain’s war record is still being calculated.)
“Everybody has been surprised that Donald Trump has seen these kind of poll numbers,” noted Bloomberg’s Steven Yaccino. Indeed, Trump’s “surprising” frontrunner status has been a constant media theme – especially after his campaign was first tagged as a “giant joke” and “sideshow” by some pundits. (Last month, the Washington Post pointed to Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans as evidence for “Why no one should take Donald Trump seriously.”)
But is Trump’s run really that surprising? It shouldn’t be if you’ve been paying attention to the radical, obstructionist turn both Republican politics and the right-wing media have taken over the last six-plus years. Yet during most of that span, the D.C. media stoically pretended the GOP hadn’t taken an ugly, radical turn. And that’s why so many seem baffled by Trump’s rise.
Increasingly, Trump represents Fox News’ Republican Party. He’s holding up a mirror. But many journalists seem slow, or unwilling, to acknowledge that.
Some Beltway analysts blame the press for Trump’s rise, insisting it’s only because he’s generating so much media attention that Republican voters are selecting him as their top choice. But that premise only works if you assume Trump doesn’t connect with a certain group of voters. The fact is, most of Trump’s coverage over the last month has been highly unflattering, as journalists and pundits detail his seemingly endless string of outrageous statements. (Minus Fox News, of course, where several hosts continue to fawn over him.) Yet Trump’s favorable rating among Republican voters has been on the rise, suggesting that he is, in fact, connecting with the GOP base.
The idea that Trump’s appeal isn’t genuine or that the press has lured Republicans into supporting him is likely more comforting than acknowledging the truth: Trump, an ignorant, nativist birther, is appealing to an often-ugly streak within the conservative movement. He’s winning over the illogical, demagoguery wing of the Republican Party that’s been feasting off far-right media hate rhetoric for years.
This was the “grassroots” political movement that was so freaked out by Obama’s ascension to power that it reached for the Nazi analogies just months into the president’s first term, before he’d barely even finished filling out his cabinet positions. This is a wing of the party that views Obama as a monster of historic proportions who’s committed to stripping citizens of their liberties and getting them addicted to government dependencies, like a drug dealer.
Is anyone surprised that Trump has the backing of Rush Limbaugh, even after the billionaire attacked McCain’s war record? It’s the same Limbaugh who claimed that if Obama weren’t black he’d be working as a tour guide in Hawaii, not sitting in the Oval Office. The same Limbaugh who decried Obama as some sort of black Manchurian Candidate who ran for office because he resents white America and wants to garnish somepayback. (Obama also thought Americans deserved to become infected with Ebola, according to Limbaugh.)
And you cannot underestimate Trump’s previous birther charade and what that likely means for him today, politically. Note that a 2014 Economist/YouGov poll found that two-thirds of Republicans “disagree with the statement that the president was born in the United States.”
Interviewing Trump’s current supporters, the New York Times reported, “Some said they doubted whether President Obama was a citizen, a misrepresentation Mr. Trump has reinforced repeatedly.”
And from the Daily Beast, which interviewed Trump donors:
I asked McNerney, who repeatedly referred to the president as “Obama Hussein,” if he thought Obama was Muslim. He said, “I know he is.” I asked if he thought Obama was born in America. He replied, “No, I don’t. Probably Africa.” Where in Africa, I wondered. “Wherever his father and his white mother were living.” Kenya? “You got it,” he said.
Earlier this month Trump told a CNN interviewer he wasn’t sure where Obama was born.
Fueled by hateful rhetoric and right-wing media programming, Republicans and conservatives have veered towards extremism in recent years. If the press had honestly documented that trend, today’s Trump phenomenon wouldn’t come as such a shock.