Nate Silver: Obama Has 86.3 Percent Chance of Winning Election
President Barack Obama continues to hold a steady lead in the polls. And New York Times’ polling wiz Nate Silver now puts Obama’s chance of winning at 86.3 percent--up 11.7 points since October 28.
The 86.3 percent chance Silver notes is up from an early-morning Sunday estimate that Obama had a 85.1 percent chance of winning, as Salon noted. The electoral vote tally Silver is predicting has Obama winning 307 to Romney’s 230.
In other words, Silver gives Obama a very, very good chance at winning tomorrow’s presidential election.
As Salon points out, Silver explained why his forecast shows Obama winning in a recent column. “Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday,” Silver writes. “Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.”
The popular vote remains close, though, according to polls. National polling finds a dead heat in the race. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll “found the two men caught in a dead heat. Mr. Obama led his rival by a whisker, 48% to 47%—a difference of seven voters among a pool of 1,475 surveyed.” But of course, the electoral college determines the winner, so a close popular vote may not mean much in the end.