Which Candidate Will Get a 'Convention Bump?'

Convention bumps are not a myth. Several nights of party messaging on several television channels really does change voter opinion. Tom Holbrook has the historic range of convention bumps:

Not only are convention bumps real, but they are also of very different sizes. There are two keys in determining the size of the bump, the first one apparently being to hold an early convention. While this might seem like an advantage for Obama, since both conventions are much later than normal, it is probably irrelevant. The other main factor in the size of the bump is how the candidates are performing relative to their expected vote share at the time of the convention. More from Holbrook (more in the extended entry):

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