The Question Isn't Whether the Dems Will Pick up Seats ... the Question is How Many?

Election '08

According to Chuck Schumer the Democrats are currently 'ahead' in five senate races and 'even or close' in six more. And Schumer sees five additional races where we're "not close yet, but they're getting there." That's sixteen potentially competitive senate races. The races that Schumer does not see as competitive are in Tennessee, Alabama, Idaho, one of the Mississippi races, and both of the Wyoming races. I think it is too early to write off either Bob Tuke in Tennessee (he hasn't secured the nomination yet) or Larry LaRocco in Idaho. On the rest of the races I agree with Schumer that they are not competitive. Still, with eighteen potentially competitive senate races, we shouldn't be talking about getting the 60 seats needed to override filibusters but the 67 needed to override presidential vetoes. Yes, it would require running the table and that is not at all likely. But just the mere potential is news.

Things are no better in the House. To get an idea of how perilous things have become for the Republicans, this is what passes for spin from the NRCC:

"As long as Democrats continue to defy 60 percent of the American people who want to drill for more oil to lower the cost of gasoline and send their vulnerable members home in August without passing an energy bill, they won't come anywhere close to winning in the 75 seats they have been ranting about," said NRCC spokesman.
Even DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen doesn't suggest that the Democrats can win 75 House seats.

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