Mississippi Goes for Obama Big Time

Obama wins Mississippi 60% to 38% with 98% of the precincts reporting.

Two elections of national note tonight: the Mississippi Democratic presidential primary, and the special election for IN-07. The former is expected to be an easy win for Obama, while the later is expected to be a fairly easy win for Democrat Andre Carson, son of the late Julia Carson who previously held the seat.

IN-07 results can be found at Blue Indiana and the Indianapolis Star. Polls close, I believe, at 7 p.m., eastern.

For Mississippi, results can be found at the websites for most national news outlets. Polls close at 8 p.m., eastern. Also, even though the polls have not closed yet, we can already project the delegate count reasonably well (see here and here for more):

  • At-large and PLEO delegates: Of the 11 delegates determined on the statewide vote, the split will be either 7-4 or 6-5, with I believe 59.1% being the over / under line for Obama. Or at least I think that is how it works, and the at-large and PLEO are not determined separately. If they are determined separately, than 6-5 Obama is a virtual lock.
  • MS-01: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama, but probably 3-2 Clinton.
  • MS-02: Probably 5-2 Obama.
  • MS-03: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama
  • MS-04: Probably 3-2 Clinton.

Overall, that means we start with a delegate count of 17-13 in favor of Obama. Three "loose" delegates could go either way, and two of those three lean toward Clinton. While that does not seem like much to watch for, there are two interesting sub-plots. First, whoever wins two of the three "loose" delegates wins the most pledged delegates for March. Second, if Obama wins the state by more than 20,000 votes, he takes the overall popular vote lead in even the most favorable count for Clinton. A more complete count shows that Obama is already ahead.

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