Bowers' Dem Disaster Scenario Unlikely

I have the utmost respect for Chris Bowers; unlike me, he's very good at predicting the outcome of elections.

But I think his "Disaster Scenario" is unlikely:

At this point, the most likely -- but hardly guaranteed -- outcome to the 2008 elections is John McCain winning the Presidency over Hillary Clinton, while Democrats make decent gains of 10-15 seats in the House and 3-5 seats in the Senate.
The central cause of this scenario is timidity on Iraq. John McCain would not be the Republican nominee, and neither Clinton nor Obama would be losing to him, if Iraq had not been taken off the table and if the "escalation is working" narrative had not taken hold.
Chris makes a detailed case (as he's wont to do) before setting up this thesis, so be sure to read the whole thing.

I have a few problems here, but first and foremost is the implication that because the "surge is working" narrative has taken root so far, it will continue to hold sway in November. Chris is great at reading the domestic political winds, but his scenario assumes that it's as likely that the situation in Iraq will stay the same or improve as it is to decline, exposing the failure of the symbolic troop escalation on which McCain has hung his entire campaign. I think that assumption's problematic.

The "surge is working" narrative's not reality-based, and when it comes to Iraq, we've seen the spin give way to the ugly facts time and time again. The addition of 21,000 combat troops not only didn't cause the decline in violence, it didn't even correlate with it chronologically.

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