Mitt Romney Wins Michigan Primary, GOP Must Go Back to the Drawing Board

Election '08

Romney 39%, McPain 30%. Huckabee 16%

Clinton 56% Uncommitted (Edwards and Obama weren't on the ballot) 39%


UPDATE: Romney has it. I was looking over the country results, and while McCain is winning most of the smaller counties. Romney is building huge leads in the larger counties like Macomb, Oakland, Kent and Livingston. He is already ahead 37%-31% with 9% reporting, and I don't see any way Romney loses this now.

UPDATE II: Mitt Romney has won Michigan, as called by all news outlets. Way to go, Mitt! A McCain win would have virtually sealed the nomination for him. Now, denying McCain the nomination is up to Romney in Nevada, and Huckabee in South Carolina. The latter is particularly important.


Obama Wins Black Vote in Michigan Without Even Competing There

This is remarkable:

According to the Fox exit polls, in the Democratic primary tonight, Clinton took 25% of the African-American vote and "uncommitted" is getting 69% of the African-American vote. Now remember, Hillary is only major candidate on the ballot.
If he can trounce Clinton among African-Americans without even being on the ballot, it seems that Obama has solidified African-Americans behind him nationwide. If, as Matt suggested yesterday, he can secure the white liberal vote, that would be a winning coalition in the Democratic primary nationwide. It would also be a repetition of his coalition in the Illinois Senate primary four years ago.

Liberals and Latinos are now the swing voters that will determine the Democratic

Most polls close in a few minutes, at 8pm eastern. Here is something from the exit poll that almost certainly confirms a Romney victory:
Michigan has open primaries and no registration by party, so voters choose on primary day which partisan contest to vote in. In 2000 with no Democratic race but for an eventual blowout in caucuses three weeks later, many Democrats voted in the Republican primary -- totaling 17 percent of that electorate, more than in any other GOP primary exit poll since at least 1992.
On Tuesday there were both Democratic and Republican primaries and though ballot maneuvering left the Democratic side in essence non-competitive, apparently it kept some Democrats from migrating to the Republican contest -- where they made up fewer than one in 10 voters. In 2000, Republicans made up only 48 percent of the GOP primary electorate; Tuesday they were two-thirds of it. A quarter of Republican primary voters Tuesday called themselves independent, down from 35 percent eight years ago.
With Republicans making up two-thirds of the electorate, and with largely momentum proof absentee votes making up nearly half of the electorate, a Romney victory seems almost guaranteed. Also, Drudge claims the exit polls show Romney 34%, McCain 29%, and Huckabee 16%. We won't know if that is true for certain until the exit polls are posted at 9pm. Still, it sure looks like Romney won Michigan.

I'll be watching CNN, Detroit News, and Detroit Free Press for returns. I do not plan to regularly update results unless it looks like Romney isn't headed to a victory. Feverish, minute by minute updates will be saved for Democratic caucuses and primaries.

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