UPDATED: GOP says: Dems are winning
From a chart that "GOP insiders are using a cheat sheet," things are looking good for Democrats. Of course, things looked good for Kerry too, so this is meaningless except as a gentle suggestion.
I'm not sure what the quantifiable difference between "most likely gone" and "expect to lose" is, but each one of those categories, according to the National Review, has 8 races each. That's 16 seats with a bluish hue.
But here's my favorite part: all the "open" labels. "Open," often refers to seats vacated in shame and ignominy -- see DeLay and Ney...
Eight in the most likely gone category: PA-7, Weldon, OH-18, Ney open, IN-8, Hostettler, CO-7 Beauprez open, AZ-8, Kolbe open, NY-24, Boehlert open, PA-10, Sherwood, CT-4, Shays.
Eight in the expect to lose most of these unless something changes: TX-22, DeLay open, NC-11, Taylor (chart notes unfavorable trend in this race), IN-9, Sodrel, IN-2, Chocola (chart notes a favorable trend), FL-16, Foley open, OH-15, Pryce, PA-6, Gerlach, NH-2, Bass (unfavorable trend).UPDATE: Swopa thinks he sees hints dropped by AP, which has the exit polls: "Across America, there was a lot of talk about sending a message at the polls and trying something new this Election Day..."