Republicans closing the gap?

There's some contradictory data about the Dems' lead in the generic ballot polls.

Charles Franklin at Pollster.com:


Three of the last six national polls have found sharp downturns in the Democratic lead on the congressional generic ballot. After rising steadily since the week before the Foley scandal, the Democratic advantage has now begun to turn down. USAToday/Gallup, ABC/Washington Post and Pew Research Center all find substantial drops. Newsweek, Time and last week's CBS/New York Times polls do not find that decline, but rather show stability at around a 15-point Democratic lead.
poll


He cautions:
While these shifts ... MAY signal a sharp change of opinion going into the weekend, the magnitude of the drop is quite uncertain with only three polls. We routinely see lots of variation across polls, especially when looking at the generic ballot margin.
Looking at a bunch of polling from House, Senate and gubernatorial races, it looks like the real "wave" of Dem support peaked on October 25, although there's nothing obvious that happened that day to precipitate a turn (Kerry's gaffe, for example, was on October30).

Generic ballot polls are a good gauge of overall voter sentiment, but people vote for individual candidates, and Pollster.com's electoral map, based on district-by-district polling has Dems with 220 seats, Repubs with 187 and 28 toss-ups (that inculdes seven districts for which no poll is available that they count for the incumbent). If the toss-ups break 50/50, the Dems will be looking at a 31-seat pick-up (counting Bernie Sanders as a Dem).

Tomorrow, it'll all come down to motivation, and people are pissed at the GOP.

Time's latest:
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 -- their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
So now's the time to do more than vote.

Chris Bowers adds: "Need more motivation? I hear Drudge will retire if Democrats win the House."

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