Five-poll average: Dems could take the Senate

Noteworthy races from's five-poll average:

  • PA: Casey (D) 51.4%--40.2% Santorum (R)
  • OH: Brown (D) 52.6%--42.0% DeWine (R)
  • RI: Whitehouse (D) 48.2%--40.2% Chafee (R)
  • MT: Tester (D) 48.2%--45.0% Burns (R)
  • VA: Webb (D) 47.0%--45.8% Allen (R)
  • MO: McCaskill (D) 47.8%--46.8% Talent (R)
  • TN: Corker (R) 49.2%--46.0% Ford (D)
  • AZ: Kyl (R) 49.2%--41.0% Pederson (D)
  • CT: Lieberman (CfL) 48.4%--38.8% Lamont (D)

If Menendez holds in New Jersey (Menendez (D) 48.2%--42.2% Kean (R)), than it's likely to come down to Missouri, Tennessee, Montana and Virginia. Webb has momentum and Allen has run one of the worst races imaginable. Same in Montana, where netroots candidate John Tester, an organic farmer, has been wiping the floor with one of the most corrupt guys in the Senate (he's had help from an admirably feisty local media). I expect Corker to beat Ford -- there are people who won't vote for a black man, period, and they don't necessarily tell pollsters the truth. McCaskill's running a good race, but it's a clear toss-up.

Lamont's been trailing Lieberman since the primaries, but there could quite a surprise in that race, because Joe's going to have a problem with his ground-game; the conservative church folks won't come out and work for him like they would a Republican, and the local party chairs and labor are working for Lamont. Plus, we'll see if Alan Schlesinger, the GOP candidate, really gets single-digits. He's been running a populist campaign and I expect he'll do better than he's been polling. He just went on the air a few days ago, and he's hitting immigration hard and attacking Lieberman from the right. And my mom's volunteering for Lamont, and I wouldn't underestimate her.

Counting Lieberman and Bernie Sanders as Dems, we're likely to see a 50/50 split, with Darth Cheney the tie-breaking vote, or a 51/49 Dem majority.

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