Five-poll average: Dems could take the Senate

Noteworthy races from Pollster.com's five-poll average:



  • PA: Casey (D) 51.4%--40.2% Santorum (R)
  • OH: Brown (D) 52.6%--42.0% DeWine (R)
  • RI: Whitehouse (D) 48.2%--40.2% Chafee (R)
  • MT: Tester (D) 48.2%--45.0% Burns (R)
  • VA: Webb (D) 47.0%--45.8% Allen (R)
  • MO: McCaskill (D) 47.8%--46.8% Talent (R)
  • TN: Corker (R) 49.2%--46.0% Ford (D)
  • AZ: Kyl (R) 49.2%--41.0% Pederson (D)
  • CT: Lieberman (CfL) 48.4%--38.8% Lamont (D)


If Menendez holds in New Jersey (Menendez (D) 48.2%--42.2% Kean (R)), than it's likely to come down to Missouri, Tennessee, Montana and Virginia. Webb has momentum and Allen has run one of the worst races imaginable. Same in Montana, where netroots candidate John Tester, an organic farmer, has been wiping the floor with one of the most corrupt guys in the Senate (he's had help from an admirably feisty local media). I expect Corker to beat Ford -- there are people who won't vote for a black man, period, and they don't necessarily tell pollsters the truth. McCaskill's running a good race, but it's a clear toss-up.

Lamont's been trailing Lieberman since the primaries, but there could quite a surprise in that race, because Joe's going to have a problem with his ground-game; the conservative church folks won't come out and work for him like they would a Republican, and the local party chairs and labor are working for Lamont. Plus, we'll see if Alan Schlesinger, the GOP candidate, really gets single-digits. He's been running a populist campaign and I expect he'll do better than he's been polling. He just went on the air a few days ago, and he's hitting immigration hard and attacking Lieberman from the right. And my mom's volunteering for Lamont, and I wouldn't underestimate her.

Counting Lieberman and Bernie Sanders as Dems, we're likely to see a 50/50 split, with Darth Cheney the tie-breaking vote, or a 51/49 Dem majority.

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. AlterNet’s journalists work tirelessly to counter the traditional corporate media narrative. We’re here seven days a week, 365 days a year. And we’re proud to say that we’ve been bringing you the real, unfiltered news for 20 years—longer than any other progressive news site on the Internet.

It’s through the generosity of our supporters that we’re able to share with you all the underreported news you need to know. Independent journalism is increasingly imperiled; ads alone can’t pay our bills. AlterNet counts on readers like you to support our coverage. Did you enjoy content from David Cay Johnston, Common Dreams, Raw Story and Robert Reich? Opinion from Salon and Jim Hightower? Analysis by The Conversation? Then join the hundreds of readers who have supported AlterNet this year.

Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure AlterNet remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to AlterNet, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.

DonateDonate by credit card

Close

Don't Sit on the Sidelines of History. Join Alternet All Access and Go Ad-Free. Support Honest Journalism.