Prediction: 51-49 Democratic Senate

News & Politics

Well, it's time to put my butt on the line again and give updated predictions for how the United States Senate will look after the election on November 7. Last month, I predicted a 50-50 split when all the ballots are counted -- or not counted, depending on whether or not the GOP is in charge in a given state -- and, while it seemed overly-optimistic to many, I'm sticking by that call. There's even a chance it could go to a 51-49 Democratic majority.

Here's my Reporter's Notebook (go here for all recent Senate polls):

In Arizona, Democrat Jim Pederson has consistently lagged nine to ten points behind the GOP's Jon Kyl and I don't see anything happening to change that between now and November 7. Fortunately, Democrats never really banked on this one because, at this point, Kyl will have to be caught exchanging sexy instant messages with Osama bin Laden to lose his Senate seat.

I've given up trying to figure out what's going on in Connecticut as too many polls show Ned Lamont significantly behind Joe Lieberman. My only hope is that what I keep hearing from off-the-record sources is true -- that Lieberman has more pressure to drop out being brought to bear by other Democrats than anyone realizes. But, at this point, why should he leave the race? He already knows most Democrats hate him and yet he still leads in all polls. Questions linger about whether people who say they'll vote for Lieberman when talking to pollsters will actually be moved to do that on election day and a massive get-out-the-vote effort is going to be required of Team Lamont.

Katherine Harris claims she's quietly sneaking up on Bill Nelson in Florida and will shock the world on election day. Yeah, that's the ticket. And I will soon shock all of my buddies by announcing a hot fling I'm having with Scarlett Johansson.

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