Odds on bombing Iran: 4 to 1

Terrence Henry notes that the odds that there would be an "Overt Air Strike by the United States or Israel by June 30, 2006" which were set at a time "just after Iran resumed enrichment research," were 4:1.

That, of course, was set earlier this year, well before today's Washington Post report that Bush plans to reiterate his doctrine of the Preemptive Strike as a part of its National Security Strategy to be released with the Orwell Memorial Speech "by national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley to the U.S. Institute of Peace."

Kidding about the Orwell thing, but the Institute of Peace part, that's for real.

No matter, since Preemptive War has worked so well in the past (Robert Dreyfuss: It is no longer possible to say that there is no civil war in Iraq. It’s here. It has begun.), we thought hey, why not?

Fox is already trotting out its pundits to exaggerate and lie on the air about Iran's capabilities. According to Media Matters [VIDEO], "Mort Kondracke falsely claimed that 'depending on who you listen to,' it will take Iran 'between six months and two years' to produce 'the material that they need for a nuclear weapon.'"

Except, as usual these pundits don't even read the reports from our own intelligence agencies which claim, according to the Times, that "it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb."

This is the same Morton Kondracke who should be thankful he even has a job after FAIR's report today on idiotic Iraq War pundits, named after a quote of Kondracke's from 2003 [in bold]:

"Well, the hot story of the week is victory.... The Tommy Franks-Don Rumsfeld battle plan, war plan, worked brilliantly, a three-week war with mercifully few American deaths or Iraqi civilian deaths.... There is a lot of work yet to do, but all the naysayers have been humiliated so far.... The final word on this is, hooray." (Fox News Channel's Morton Kondracke, 4/12/03)
So yes, the machinery appears to be in motion for a war on Iran. However, as we make the case for stopping this war -- very possibly stoppable at this point -- it's important to avoid downplaying the treachery occurring there. Let's be mindful of Iran's horrific treatment of women, gays, students, and dissenters as we make the case for containment, multilateralism and most of all, support for reform from within.

Further reading from Juan Cole: "[Iranian nuclear issue] has not reached the point of crisis, and therefore other motivations must be sought for the Bush administration’s breathless rhetoric." (Atlantic Monthly, Media Matters, TomPaine.com, WaPo, FAIR, Direland, Harvard Crimson, Truthdig)

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