Hackett in the coalmine?
While Democrat Paul Hackett lost to Jean Schmidt in Ohio, the bigger story is the shift in the political wind in the state that decided the presidential election. Over the past two elections this district voted Republican by a 13% margin, and should've been an easy victory for the Republican. Beforehand, political analyst Charlie Cook, courtesy of Markos, wrote:
If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.Kos comments: "From the looks of it, the margin was under 4 percent, or per Cook's analysis, a 'very serious warning sign' for the state GOP. Indeed, this is probably the only district in Ohio in which Paul would've lost.
"So the state GOP avoids a 'devastating blow', but only by the hair on their chinny chin chin. OH-02 saw the resurgence of the Democratic Party, the GOP had to spend $500K they hadn't otherwise planned on spending, and a Democratic star is born... It's a new day for the Democratic Party, one in which no Republican district is safe." (DailyKos)