As Iraq-news-talk focuses on the constitution and Bush's lowering of the bar (OK, well, yeah, OK, so we did all that to create an Islamic state...) The Dark Wraith gives an excellent overview of the ethnic fault lines (Kurds and Shiites wouldn't mind their own states so much but the Sunnis would get the shaft).
After exploring the likelihood of a "controlled shatter" of Iraq along these lines, he writes:
"But one thing is certain: all of this would happen without the Americans there. More tragically, something like this will probably happen to a greater or lesser extent with the Americans there."
"That means the United States is serving now as the unneeded sideshow, important though it might believe it is as it fills up Arlington National Cemetery with its citizens' contribution to the Save Iraq from Itself Foundation. In the end, though, its irrelevance will come shining through as events outpace ill-conceived neo-conservative strategies. The time frame in which this irrelevance dawns upon Washington will determine how many more of those soldiers' graves will be filled."(The UnCapitalist Journal)