Israel Lobby Goes Down, Iran Gets a Boost: The Winners and Losers of the Geneva Nuclear Deal
Israel and Iran at loggerheads.
Photo Credit: Aquir/Shutterstock.com
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Soon after the historic deal between Iran and the so-called P5+1, the White House published the fact sheet of the interim agreement, putting its own obvious spin for domestic benefits. Meanwhile the IRNA(Islamic Republic News Agency) published its own full version, which did not differ much with the White House's, though it did give a fuller picture of the deal. The battle of spin has started in earnest.
Above and beyond any such spin, however, are some very basic and simple features to this deal: According to a detailed analysis by The New York Times, the gist of the deal is this: "Iran retains the technology and material to produce fuel for a weapon for now, [but] the deal adds time to an Iranian nuclear "breakout", [while] Iran will receive some financial relief, but most sanctions will remain."
Winners and losers
The clear victory in this deal, however we read it, belongs to the Iranian people, for a number of quite critical reasons:
- The threat of military strike has been at least temporarily lifted;
- Warmongers ranging from Israel and Saudi Arabia, to US neo-cons and their Iranian expat employees, to the pestiferous components of the ruling regime in Iran, to those among the expat opposition who hate the Islamic Republic far more than they care for the well-being of Iranian people, are all categorically discredited;
- Aspects of the sanctions that were directly effecting Iranians are somewhat modified - such as provisions "to defray the tuition costs of Iranian students", or for "Iran's purchase of food, agricultural commodities, medicine, medical devices";
- The anti-war and anti-sanction movement got a moral boast, while AIPAC and its willing or implicit supporters among the Iranian expat opposition have received a major blow;
- Agency and confidence for future actions are confirmed among the Iranian people whose ballot box option in June's presidential election put into office a president and a foreign minister who are far closer to their aspirations than the previous government.
The ruling regime has, however, very little to celebrate, so far as its claim to protecting Iranian national interests is concerned - for in fact this text shows its almost complete capitulation to the P5+1 - for reasons such as: "Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5 percent", and "Iran has committed to neutralise its stockpile of near-20 percent uranium," and "Iran has committed to halt progress on its enrichment capacity" - and in exchange, has received nothing to show for it: "In total, the approximately $7bn in relief is a fraction of the costs that Iran will continue to incur during this first phase under the sanctions that will remain in place. The vast majority of Iran's approximately $100bn in foreign exchange holdings are inaccessible or restricted by sanctions."
In the clear words of one US official about this agreement: "Iran will actually be worse off at the end of this six month deal than it is today."
This deal is a failure, as far as the ability of the ruling regime is concerned, to protect the Iranian national interests. But as far as its own survival is concerned, this deal amounts to a grand victory for it has considerably lifted the threat of war and to some extent neutralised domestic defiance, while it has kept its regional soft and hard power (of which I have already written in detail), intact.
In reaction to these facts, the ruling regime in Iran will start selling this deal as a grand victory for Iranians, which it is not; even as the Obama administration will tell the Israelis, Saudis, and the US Congress, that it has given up nothing in exchange for everything (with perfect justification); while expat warmongers will try to convince their employers they are still useful and should be gainfully employed.