How a Russian Dissident Became a Thorn in Vladimir Putin's Side

During the period of the protest movement many of its members regarded Navalny as their leader. On 4 April 2013 Navalny responded to their expectations by  saying that he would like in the future to become the President of Russia. He played a crucial part in the informal coordination groups organising demonstrations. Opinion polls showed that his recognition by the general public was on the increase. 

He also had obvious political talent. As a blogger he had demonstrated that he could talk to any section of the public – even the most complex, the politicised internet users – in a language which could both interest and enthuse. This was confirmed at rallies, when Navalny’s speeches frequently became the central event. On top of this, Navalny had showed that as a protest organiser he could achieve compromises between the the most varied, often politically incompatible, groups -  a rare, and therefore very valuable, quality in the Russian opposition. And finally, he had intuition.  This is a quality which is crucial for a politician.  During the critical events of autumn 2011 and spring 2012, he made not one mistake.

Navalny during the decline of the protest movement

It hardly needs saying that Navalny’s transformation into a recognised opposition leader was a matter of considerable anxiety for the authorities. On 31 July 2012 he was accused of criminal offences, which ultimately led to the 2013 conviction. Being under investigation was very inconvenient for political activities, if only because it limited his freedom of movement and many other opportunities.

But the most important factor in Navalny’s trajectory thereafter was the gradual fading away of the protest movement, which became apparent in the summer of 2012. It became increasingly difficult to get people to turn out for demonstrations; other forms of protest were ruled out by existing political limitations. The main opposition event of the autumn of 2012 were the internet elections to the  Coordinating Council of the Opposition, a body not noted for any particular organisational activity after it was elected. In this election Navalny received the majority vote, one more confirmation of his position as leader. But the overall effect of the election was remarkably modest.

Navalny supporters set up a party around him, ‘ The People’s Alliance’, though he himself did not become a member, obviously not wishing to sacrifice his position as a leader above party politics for an organisation with an uncertain future. During the spring of 2013 Navalny did little, and what he did was mainly linked with internet projects – RosPil and several others set up in 2012. However, the well-known inertia of public opinion ensured that his popularity continued to grow, as could be seen from opinion polls. An important contributory factor was the continuing dissatisfaction with the authorities among the wider public, whose favourable attention was therefore turned on to the best-known opposition figure.

The sentence

This enforced pause was interrupted by the campaign for the Moscow mayoral election, which was announced in June 2013, after Mayor Sergei Sobyanin unexpectedly announced his retirement. Explaining his decision, Sobyanin (who was appointed in 2010) said that he wished to obtain a direct mandate from Muscovites so as to be able to pursue his own policies.  While enjoying Vladimir Putin’s full support, Sobyanin is also trying to present himself as an experienced manager, above party politics, so he refused to stand as a ‘United Russia’ candidate and will stand as an independent. His aim is obviously to increase his legitimacy, so his rhetoric from the very start has included the idea that this election will be fair and truly competitive.