U.S: Air Force Think Tank Advises Against Iran Attack

Amid rising speculation about the possibility of an Israeli or U.S. bombing attack on Iranian nuclear facilities earlier this month, a major study produced for the U.S. Air Force by a top defense think tank concluded that U.S. military action against Iran was "likely to have negative effects for the United States".

The study, by the RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the California-based RAND Corporation, was released Jul. 9, the same day that Tehran test-fired medium- and long-range missiles in an apparent response to reports the previous week that Israel had carried out secret exercises designed to simulate a raid on Iran's nuclear facilities the previous month.

Amid all the fireworks, however, the report, which also called for a multi-faceted strategy designed to encourage democratic development in Iran, was ignored by the mainstream media.

Entitled "Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities," the 156-page report also called for Washington to "tone down" its policy statements supporting "regime change" and to "discourage Iranian ethnic groups from revolting against the regime". Both policies, it said, are likely to be counter-productive.

Instead, according to the three main authors of the study, Washington should adopt a more patient approach, "designed to create conditions for effective relations (with Tehran) over the long haul."

As with the Soviet Union, "(w)ith Iran, the U.S. government will again need to keep an eye on the long term, communicating with the current government but also encouraging more discussion among Iranians and more contacts and interactions between Iranians and Americans."

"Societies and governments change. The U.S. government has some ability to foster favorable trends in Iran, but these policies will take time to come to fruition," said the report, which also noted that Iran "appears to be on its way to becoming a nuclear power".

Speculation about a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has, in fact, subsided somewhat over the past three weeks, although the issue has flared again as a result of successive visits by Israel's chief of staff and defense minister, Ehud Barak, over the past week. Indeed, the Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday that top U.S. officials had reassured Barak that the military option was still "on the table".

Still, most analysts believe that while such an attack -- either by Israel or the U.S. -- remains possible, it is not probable, if for no other reason than the military brass in the Pentagon, especially the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, has made its opposition to the idea increasingly clear over the past month.

In addition, the decision to send a high-ranking State Department official to participate for the first time in talks 10 days ago with Iran as part of the Five Plus One process that also involves France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China has been taken as a signal that Washington is increasingly committed to diplomacy as the means to address its concern over Tehran's nuclear program.

If, in addition, the State Department receives White House approval for opening an Interests Section in Tehran -- a move that is currently the subject of discussions at the highest level of the administration -- the likelihood of an attack before President George W. Bush leaves office will recede even further.

In that respect, the RAND study bolsters those who favor engagement with Iran, even as it also supports the maintenance of certain kinds of sanctions, notably the embargo on certain high-tech gas liquefaction technologies, as a bargaining chip for future negotiations with Tehran. To increase pressure on the regime, the report also recommends expanding contingency plans to seize Iranian foreign bank and commercial accounts and encouraging U.S. allies to bar certain Iranian officials associated with the nuclear program from obtaining visas for foreign travel.