Iraq 2012

Spring in Baghdad saw stadiums open to shelter yet another wave of refugees, displaced from the capital's eastern slums by the combined assault of the U.S. military and its proxy Iraqi forces upon the Mahdi Army loyal to the young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The fresh attempt to "root out" the Mahdi Army from its birthplace of Sadr City was the latest battle in Iraq's complex and ever shifting civil war -- a war in which the U.S. military, in a sense, is but the largest and most heavily armored militia. At the very least, the fighting in Sadr City shows that the relative calm of late 2007 and early 2008 was indeed "fragile and reversible," in the words of Gen. David Petraeus. More likely, it demonstrates that the winter's decline in violence was only a lull in chaos with no end in sight. Yet in the United States, one might be forgiven for thinking the war in Iraq is over.

Though deeply unpopular, the war has steadily receded from public consciousness, thanks to economic woes, the exhausting Democratic presidential primary and an easily gulled mainstream media. While Iraq still ranks high on the list of voters' concerns, the bursting of the housing bubble and skyrocketing gas and food prices have focused most Americans' minds on their wallets. The Hillary Clinton campaign's decision in January to race-bait Barack Obama drove the Democratic primary away from the issues into a downward spiral of identity politics and desperate appeals to the ugly side of American political consciousness, culminating in Clinton's suggestion that Obama might be assassinated, as Bobby Kennedy was in 1968. Clinton's long flameout completely absorbed the media's attention during the April testimony of Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker before Congress, right up until her belated bow to the inevitable in early June. The spectacle of the primary was sordid enough without considering its larger political consequences, one of which is that the Bush administration's narrative that "the surge is working" remains essentially intact.

There are ample grounds for challenging this tale of success. Now that the former First Lady has finally stood down, Obama can begin to do so. One reason why Iraq faded from the front page during the Democratic primary is that both he and Clinton pledged to begin withdrawing "combat brigades" from Iraq immediately upon assuming office, meaning that journalists had no conflict between the candidates to report on that score. The general election campaign should provide plenty of that conflict. But there is reason to worry, nevertheless, that Obama will not be able to fulfill his promises to wind down the war -- even in the event that those promises are sincere.

Quietly, the Bush administration is negotiating with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki over an agreement that could keep tens of thousands of U.S. troops in Iraq for years after the surge is over. On November 26, 2007, President George W. Bush and Maliki signed a statement of principles for such an agreement, to be concluded before December 31 of this year, when the UN mandate for the so-called Multinational Force in Iraq will expire. Because it will not be a "treaty," this accord may not be subject to Congressional approval, but it is expected to make the U.S. military presence contingent upon the wishes of the Maliki government, which likely depends on that presence for its political survival. The Iraqi defense minister told CNN that Iraq could "need" a U.S. garrison until 2018. According to Crocker, the agreement may be ready in July. [Ed. note: As this article went to press, negotiations had stalled, but leaders both sides continued to express confidence that differences would be worked out by July.]

In Iraq, this proposed arrangement is a major rallying point for the political opposition. Sadr's followers are among the thousands of Iraqis who have taken to the streets in protest against what they see as Iraqi acquiescence in permanent foreign occupation. The demonstrations frighten the Maliki government enough that its spokesmen have taken to denouncing alleged U.S. negotiating positions in the Iraqi press, if only to create the appearance that they are fighting for Iraqi sovereignty.