Starting the Next Cold War

Military alliances are always sold as things that produce security. In practice they tend to do the opposite.

Thus, Germany formed the Triple Alliance with Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire to counter the enmity of France following the Franco-Prussian War. In response, France, England and Russia formed the Triple Entente. The outcome was World War I.

In 1949, the United States and Britain led the campaign to form the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to deter a supposed Soviet attack on Western Europe. In response, the Soviets formed the Warsaw Pact. What the world got was not security but the Cold War, dozens of brushfire conflicts across the globe, and enough nuclear weapons to destroy the earth a dozen times over.

NATO Lives On

The Cold War may be over, but you would never know it from NATO's April meeting in Bucharest. The alliance approved membership for Croatia and Albania, and only French and German opposition prevented the Bush administration from adding the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia.

"NATO," President Bush told the gathering, "is no longer a static alliance focused on defending Europe from a Soviet tank invasion. It is now an expeditionary alliance that is sending its forces across the world to help secure a future of freedom and peace for millions." NATO will soon begin deploying anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems in Poland and the Czech Republic that are supposedly aimed at Iran, but which the Russians charge are really targeted at them. The alliance has encircled Russia with allies and bases, is increasingly sidelining the United Nations, has added troops to Afghanistan, and is preparing to open shop in the Pacific Basin.

But politics is much like physics: for every reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Shanghai Strikes Back

In this case the reaction is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an organization that embraces one quarter of the world's population, from Eastern Europe to North Asia, from the Arctic to the vast steppes and mountain ranges of Central Asia. Formed in 2001, its members include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO is, in the words of a Financial Times editorial, "everything that Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger -- who sought to keep Russia and China apart -- tried to prevent."

According to Chinese Foreign Minister Yeng Jiechi, last August's SCO meeting in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, prioritized "mapping out Sino-Russian ties and upgrading bilateral strategic coordination." The two nations also agreed "to join forces to tackle other major security issues, in a concerted effort to safeguard the strategic interests of both countries."

It is useful to remember that it was less than 40 years ago that Chinese and Soviet troops clashed across the Ussuri River north of Vladivostok. According to China's People's Daily, SCO discussions included strengthening the U.N. and "the common challenge facing the two countries, emanating out of the U.S. plans to deploy the missile-defense plans targeting Europe and the East."

China is deeply concerned about the Bush administration's anti-ballistic missile system (ABM) which could cancel out Beijing's modest Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) force. This past May 23, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao issued a joint statement condemning the ABM as a threat to "strategic balance and stability."

The Bishkek summit adopted a declaration that took direct aim at the Bush administration's foreign policy, including condemning "unilateralism" and "double standards," supporting "multilateralism," and "strict observance of international law," and underlining the importance of the U.N.

Is the SCO evolving into a political alliance with a strong military dimension, like NATO? Not yet, but its member states have carried out joint "anti-terrorist" maneuvers, and the organization is closely tied to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).