The Post-Fidel Moment

Facing imprisonment for treason in 1953, Fidel Castro famously remarked that history would absolve him of his rebellious actions against the decaying dictatorship of General Fulgencio Batista. The prophetic declaration marked a turning point in Cuba's development, culminating in a full-fledged revolution six years later. As Fidel himself now fades into history, Cuba again appears on the verge of change. While the scope of the island's ongoing transformation pales in comparison to the tumultuous events of the 1950s, the reality of new leadership in Havana does create the conditions for a long-awaited warming in United States-Cuba relations.

The long era of Fidel Castro is finally over. On January 20, the octogenarian revolutionary was re-elected to the National Assembly despite not being seen in public for over a year and a half. When the Assembly convenes on February 24, however, it's possible that members will choose to retire the ailing leader by nominating someone else to head the Council of State, the government's executive branch. If not, Fidel may decide to formally announce his resignation from public life, as he has hinted at on a number of occasions.

In a recent letter, Castro wrote that he could no longer stand in the way of the next generation of Cuban leaders. It was a stunning acknowledgement from the man who has outlasted nine U.S. presidents while personalizing Marxist rule in Cuba and personifying the struggle against Yanqui imperialism in the Americas. Having survived Washington's nearly 50-year vendetta, Fidel is set to leave power largely on his own terms, succumbing only to the constraints of his rapidly deteriorating health.

Raul the Reformer

Raul Castro, Fidel's younger brother and longtime heir apparent, has been Cuba's "acting president" since July 31, 2006. At 76 years old, Raul is no spring chicken, nor does he have the charisma of his predecessor. By most accounts, Raul is primed to be a transitional figure, one whose relatively brief tenure will quickly give way to a more thorough -- and contentious -- political realignment. This is not to say that Raul won't leave an indelible mark on Cuban society as Lider Maximo ("Maximum Leader," Fidel's unofficial title for decades). His willingness to address Cuba's economic problems and open paths to public dialogue has already created an atmosphere of budding optimism in the country.

Cuba's political future post-Raul is just one of the many questions facing the country over the long term, issues which include the island's notoriously rocky relationship with the Untied States. Will Raul be succeeded by another dominant leader, such as Vice President Carlos Lage or National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon? A power-sharing arrangement featuring some sort of collective leadership? Or will Cubans construct an altogether different political system in line with their unique historical experience? Furthermore, what would be required, in both Havana and Washington, for the beginnings of a normalization process to take hold?

These uncertainties aside, the short-term trajectory of Cuba's political economy appears to be settled. The fundamentals of the country's socialist system will remain in place, with Fidel's official departure providing Raul heightened maneuverability to curtail the corruption, inefficiency, and overly-bureaucratic planning that have dogged the Cuban economy for years. On July 26, 2007, Raul gave a major policy speech in which he stated that his government was actively looking for new ways of securing foreign investment without abandoning socialism.

Contrary to Washington's portrayal of Raul as a mere clone of his older brother, Cuba's new leader has emerged as a reformer -- albeit a tepid one. His calls for structural changes to Cuba's economy remind observers of Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China's economic liberalization process, who introduced market mechanisms to "modernize" the country while maintaining the Communist Party's firm grip on power. As noted by veteran Cuba watcher Brian Latell, among others, Raul is an open admirer of the Chinese system. Ultimately, the younger Castro may prove to be more of a Gorbachev figure, releasing economic forces that usher in calls for substantive political change, resulting in trends toward liberal democracy.