Iraq's Anarchic Civil War

Almost three years into a war that has seen the loss of nearly 2,300 American servicemen and women, the infliction of more than 16,600 American casualties, and a cost to American taxpayers of more than $250 billion, the government of post-war Iraq still struggles to exceed the level of service and security provided in pre-war Iraq.

In January, the White House hoped that the continuing drumbeat of insurgent activity would disappear from the nation's newspapers and TV sets. "The more Iraq disappears off the front pages and onto Page A17 or A18, the better for us," said a White House adviser. But recent violence in Iraq demonstrates that the war continues to remain a central issue in the minds of most Americans, one that has demanded A1 coverage and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

With his unwillingness to change course, President Bush continues to be held captive to the events on the ground. Unless and until Bush is willing to embrace a new approach, the U.S. plans for a drawdown this year continue to look bleak. The Center for American Progress has a sensible, alternative approach -- Strategic Redeployment -- that more people outside the administration are beginning to embrace.

Curfews contain, but cannot stop, violence

At least 200 people have died since last Wednesday, when Sunni insurgents bombed the Golden Mosque in Samarra, one of the holiest shrines in Shiite Islam. Three days of daylight curfews in four key Iraqi provinces reduced the rate of violence, but could not stop it altogether.

In spite of the curfews, a car bomb in Najaf killed at least seven and wounded 54; a bomb in a bus station in Hilla killed five; and 29 people, including three U.S. soldiers, were killed by a roadside bomb planted in Baghdad. Sunni religious leaders said that nearly 200 of their mosques had been damaged in retaliatory attacks.

The curfews have taken their toll on Iraqis and restricted the flow of commerce for the past three days." Most shops and businesses remained boarded up, and streets normally chocked with traffic for Sunday's start of the work week were eerily empty." With the curfews now having officially ended, many are fearful of sectarian reprisals.

The long-predicted civil war

An anarchic civil war now grips Iraq, marked primarily by its lack of order and chaotic daily violence. Before the U.S. invasion, Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) questioned, "What plans do we have to prevent Iraq from breaking up and descending into civil war?" Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) added, "The end of Saddam Hussein could mean the start of a civil war." Those fears have largely materialized because the administration was never willing to make the necessary commitment of U.S. troops from the outset to maintain the peace.

Now, faced with disorderly violence, the administration urges the public to stop "raising the specter they [Iraq] might fall into civil war." But in truth, fears of full-scale civil war continue to mount; U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad suggests civil war is a danger. The International Crisis Group continues to warn that Iraq is "on the verge of breaking up along religious, ethnic and tribal lines." Even if a full-blown organized sectarian war has not yet emerged, anarchy clearly persists.

Each group for itself

Bush's exit strategy hinges on the training of Iraqi troops. He continually repeats, "As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down." But the Pentagon reported this weekend that zero Iraqi battalions are capable of fighting independently. In September of last year, the Pentagon said that the number of independent Iraqi army battalions had dropped from three to one. Army Reserve Capt. A. Heather Coyne, a former White House counterterrorism official, said, "There is a total lack of security in the streets, partly because of the insurgents, partly because of criminals, and partly because the security forces can be dangerous to Iraqi citizens too."