Who Is Behind the Bloody Bombings in Iraq -- And What Do They Want?

A wave of bomb and gun attacks across Iraq [last] week exploited a leadership vacuum and the emergence of a powerful Shia coalition, with the aim of re-igniting sectarian bloodshed, analysts and politicians said.

 

Shootings, suicide attacks and car bombs in at least  ten countrywide locations killed 119 people on May 10, with the deadliest incidents coming in the predominantly Shia cities of Basra and Hillah. Two bombings a day later killed five more Iraqis in Baghdad.

 

A popular tea shop in the capital's Sadr City area, near the headquarters of radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, was bombed on May 12 leaving at least nine customers dead and dozens injured. The string of attacks, against mostly Shia targets, has been seen by some as a brutal sectarian backlash against political developments and many fear more violence ahead.

 

"Attacking a well-known Sadrist stronghold is retaliation for how well the Shia did in the election," said Amir al-Kenani, a parliamentarian from the Sadrist bloc, after the May 12 bombing.

 

“Terrorists will continue to commit more attacks, particularly on poor people. Their main goal is to stoke sectarian tension at a time when the government and security forces are not able to protect their people. People here expect a bomb at any time. Sooner or later they will have to protect themselves, if others cannot protect them."

 

The perpetrators of the most recent bombings are as yet unknown, but officials blamed the May 10 strikes on al-Qaeda, saying the extremist group was striking back after a series of successful government campaigns that included the killing of two top militant leaders in a raid last month.

 

Analysts believe the current political climate has given attackers a chance to trigger sectarian warfare, and the days and weeks ahead will determine if they will be successful.

 

POLITICAL DEADLOCK

 

The attacks occurred as politicians continue months of wrangling over the formation of the next government. The tightly coordinated strikes also followed the merger last week of Iraq's two main Shia political blocs, a move certain to cement a leading role in the next administration.

 

The alliance of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law, SOL, with the Iraqi National Alliance, INA, dominated by hard-line anti-American Sadr, has been seen as marginalizing Iraq's Sunni minority which has been largely discontent with the Shia-led governments in power since 2003.

 

The new coalition, which United States ambassador Christopher Hill called a “Shia mega party”, has brought concern that Sunni will again abandon the political process and return to militias and tribal networks for protection.

 

“The formation of the new alliance will fuel violence in Iraq for two reasons. First, it tells terrorists that Iraqi politicians are arguing and busy with their own business, so this is the best time to attack. Second, it enables al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations to induce Sunni to insurgency again by telling them they have no position in Iraq’s government even though they went to the polls and did well in the election,” said Kadim al-Muqdadia, a political analyst and professor of media and journalism at Baghdad University.

 

The merger of the Shia blocs was a political blow to Ayad Allawi, a secular Shia former prime minister whose Iraqiya coalition was widely supported by Sunni. Iraqiya got the most votes in March 7 parliamentary elections that yielded no outright winner. According to unofficial results, the bloc won 91 seats in parliament, followed by SOL and INA, which acquired 89 and 70 seats respectively.

 

Although a manual recount, expected to be finalized [last] week in Baghdad, may slightly alter the results, this will matter little after the merger of SOL and INA. The new coalition now needs only four more votes to reach the required majority in the 325-seat parliament to form a government. This process of negotiation with other potential allies will begin once results are declared official by the Supreme Court.