Is Israel About to Trigger a New Middle East War?

When Israeli Minister without Portfolio Yossi Peled said recently that a war with Lebanon's Hezbollah was "just a matter of time" and that such a conflict would include Syria, most observers dismissed the comment as little more than posturing by a right-wing former general. But Peled's threat has been backed by Israeli military maneuvers near the Lebanese border, violations of Lebanese airspace, and the deployment of an anti- missile system on Israel's northern border.

The Lebanese are certainly not treating it as Likud bombast.

"We hear a lot of Israeli threats day in and day out, and not only threats," Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri told the BBC. "We see what is happening on the ground and in our airspace.during the past two months-every day we have Israeli airplanes entering Lebanese airspace." Hariri added that he considered the situation "really dangerous."

The increasing tension was behind the recent visit to Beirut by Senator Philippe Marini, French President Nicholas Sarkozy's special envoy to Lebanon. After Marini met with Hariri, Christian Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and Hezbollah leaders, the envoy said that he feared a Hezbollah-Israel rematch could easily become a regional war.

Rhetoric all over the region is heating up.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman first said that Israel would never return the Golan Heights to Syria, prompting Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al- Muallem to comment that Israel "should not test Syria's determination." Lieberman responded by taking direct aim at Syrian President Bashar Assad: "In the next war, not only will you lose, but you and your family will lose the regime."

Israel attacked Lebanon in 2006 following a Hezbollah raid that captured two Israeli soldiers. The 34-day war cost Lebanon more than 1,000 dead, and tens of billions of dollars in damage to bridges, roads, airports, and towns. But the war also saw the once-invincible Israeli Self-Defense Forces (IDF) fought to a bloody standstill, and a barrage of some 4,000 Hezbollah rockets into Israel.

Many in the Israeli military would love to re-establish the IDF's reputation by beating up on Hezbollah, but the Shiite-based militia has broad support throughout Lebanon, as the last elections demonstrated. While the "pro-western" March 14 Movement won the most seats-largely as a result of ethnic gerrymandering-the Hezbollah bloc won the most votes. In any case, the March 14 Movement has begun to unravel with the defection of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.

Lebanon is a deeply fractious place, but an Israeli attack would unite the country as it did in 2006. "I think they're [Israelis] betting that there might be some division in Lebanon if there is war against us," said Hariri, "Well, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people."

Lebanon's military is no match for Israel. It has a small army and its air force consists of two grounded 1950s vintage Hawker Hunter fighter-bombers, plus a motley collection of helicopters, most of which are not operational. In the 2007 fight with Islamic extremists in Tripoli, Lebanese Army soldiers pitched bombs out of French Gazelle helicopters by hand.

As the IDF found out in 2006, however, Hezbollah is a different matter. Of course, a massive Israeli ground invasion would overwhelm the group's militia, but any occupation of South Lebanon will conjure up old nightmares for Tel Aviv. It was Hezbollah's roadside bombs and ambushes that drove the IDF out of the same area in 2000.

The Israelis are threatening to flatten the entire country if it comes to war-"taking off the gloves" as Israel military analyst Yisrael Katzover puts it-and they certainly have the capabilities to inflict a stunning amount of damage. But Hezbollah claims it has some thunder of its own. Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader, vows to bring Tel Aviv's Ben-Gurion Airport under fire if Israel bombs Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport as it did in 2006. "If you hit our ports, we will hit your ports," Nasrallah said Feb. 21.